|
|
|
|
Analyses,
Analysis
Les analyses de
Strategic-Road.com
The analysis
by Strategic-Road.com
|
Analysis
06/06/06 - Political and Industrial Implications of the Clearstream
Scandal - by Federico Bordonaro
& Jean-Philippe Miginiac
While the
French media continue to follow closely the developments of the
Clearstream scandal, the latter's implications on France's political and
industrial landscape remain largely unknown even to the most informed
public. This is due both to the caution used by the specialised press in
dealing with the issue and to the scandal's complexity.
Since France is a key player in the European Union and in the
Euro-Atlantic relations, any significant change in its domestic power
configuration – both political and economic – will have an impact on
international politics and global business. The consequences of the
Clearstream's scandal are, thence, the real issue – much more of the
dramatised story that excites the press. However, in order to understand
what is going to happen, the background of the affair needs to be briefly
exposed.
The Background
Clearstream, based in Luxemburg, is the clearing division of Deutsche
Börse Group. Its tasks are thus related to electronic transitions,
whereby reporting, risk margining, netting, tax as well as failure
handling are the core of its activities.
The current Clearstream scandal is also known as "the second
Clearstream affair", and is not to be confused with a previous one (dating
back to 2001) linked to alleged money laundering and tax evasion. The
current affair was originated in 2003 and involved the question of
France's selling of six frigates to Taiwan, following a 1991 deal.
|
According
to the accusations, such Franco-Taiwanese deal allowed certain
political decision-makers to illegally receive percentage fees –
thanks to secret Clearstream's accounts allegedly discovered by a
hacker with ties to France's intelligence services. Such accounts
were in fact mentioned in a list that magistrates believe to be a
fake. The scandal rapidly progressed and involved politicians (among
which Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy) and top managers linked
to the E.U. key defence and aerospatial giant, E.A.D.S.
The timing of the scandal's outburst is essential to understand
its actual and potential implications. The media campaign of 2006
looks particularly dangerous for France's present Prime minister,
Dominique de Villepin and the Chirac-Villepin faction in the
Gaullist party, U.M.P., with "collateral damages" for
E.A.D.S. Back in 2003, however, it was E.A.D.S. the primary
target.
The key players of the manipulation have been Jean-Louis Gergorin,
vicepresident of E.A.D.S., and Imad Lahoud, an intelligence agent
and computer expert.
A widespread belief was that the accounts were revealed in order
to prevent Noel Forgeard to obtain the co-presidency d'E.A.D.S. to
the profit of his competitor, Philippe Camus, supported by
Jean-Louis Gergorin back in 2003. However, such claims are flawed
by an evident contradiction: not only Noel Forgeard becomes co-President
of E.A.D.S., but he chooses Jean-Louis Gergorin as vicepresident,
while Imad Lahoud becomes Scientific Director.
As Forgeard knew Gergorin and Lahoud perfectly, it is unthinkable
that he could have chosen them for vital corporate roles if he
suspected that they consistently tried to damage his career.
Therefore, it is likely that Gergorin and Lahoud didn't fabricated
the false list of accounts. A credible hypothesis is that the
Clearstream's electronic network had been hacked by Lahoud, who
probably fell prey to a so-called "honeypot". A honeypot
is a kind of anti-hacker trap, designed to deflect and counteract
attempts at unauthorized use of information systems, since it
seems to contain information would be of value to pirates.
The obtained fake list would have then been transmitted by Lahoud
to a French top intelligence officer, General Rondot, asked by
Villepin himself to verify the list's authenticity. The problem is
that many conjectures are being made regarding the real aims of
the entire manipulation. What is important, however, is the
present use of the available information and the political
management of the scandal's perception.
In other words, the Clearstream affair remains important beyond
its real and initial rationale, because it may significantly
weaken certain French decision-makers in the run up to the 2007
presidential elections.
Domestic Political Implications
As of June 2006, the main implication of the Clearstream
affair has been the further weakening of an already troubled
French government, and particularly of Dominique de Villepin. The
latter appeared in late 2005 as a candidate for 2007 with good
chances to succeed. He did so after his first months at Matignon
were marked by a decrease of unemployment rates and the launch of
an ambitious energy policy (see IB: French Energy Policy).
However, Villepin had to face a strong competitor inside the
U.M.P., that of Nicolas Sarkozy. Therefore, when Villepin stumbled
over the massive protests against his sponsored C.P.E. (a proposed
contract for young employees that significantly loosened hire and
fire rules), Sarkozy immediately moved to benefit from the
situation by taking the initiative and launching negotiations with
students and trade unions.
Sarkozy already tried to take the actual political leadership in
November 2005, as France's social life was destabilised by riots (see
IB: Riots in France). Now, after Villepin was caught in the
Clearstream affair, it looks like the Prime minister will have
little choice of being elected in 2007, even though Chirac will
likely continue to support him and to fight back in the
information warfare that followed the scandal.
As a consequence, the rising star of Socialist Party, Ms
Ségolène Royal, is taking advantage out of the U.M.P.'s inner
battle, and she looks increasingly fit to win the presidential
election's first round next year – which would put her in
competition with the second most successful candidate in the final
play-off.
Because of the Sarkozy-Villepin frictions, Sarkozy may lose some
of his supporters, should he appear to a large part of French
citizens as someone who unduly exploits his allies' troubles.
Therefore, the Interior minister will have to move carefully in
the coming months, balancing his competitive strategy against
Villepin with a successful hegemonic tactique within the French
right-wing.
Failing to do so will put Sarkozy's chances at risk, and will once
again launch the far right National Front's leader, Jean-Marie Le
Pen, as the surprise challenger to the whole establishment.
Since France experiences a difficult political phase, culminated
with the 2005 establishment's failure to win the referendum on the
E.U. Constitutional Treaty, all the 2007 candidates will try to
capitalize on the citizenship's malaise with the "same old
politics". The new wave of anti-E.U. feelings and rhetoric
has given strength to the sovereignist discourse in the last
couple of years (see PINR: the Rise of French Pro-Sovereignty
Movements).
However, the genuinely sovereignist right-wing party, Villiers'
Movement for France, isn't as rooted as the National Front among
French voters and, more importantly, does not epitomize the anti-systemic
feeling like Le Pen does. Thus, Villiers' plans to seduce a large
part of the National Front's sympathisers and supporters look
difficult to succeed, notwithstanding Le Pen's isolation from
France's media system, since the National Front still capitalizes
past years' political rooting. This largely explains why in some
of the newest polls, Le Pen was chosen by 10 to 14% of voters as
their 2007 candidate. That figure may be little impressive, but
the National Front's leader was credited with even less votes one
year before his surprising success of 2002.
While Sarkozy will obviously use the next six-eight months to
secure his maximum potential among his supporters and those of the
broader French right-wing landscape, Le Pen will be a serious
challenge to the Interior Minister's strategy of winning all of
the most conservative votes -- even though in past occasions, the
candidate who took the lead in the polls conducted one year before
the election never succeeded to actually win.
International and Industrial Implications
As explained, the Clearstream affair went off in 2003 and then,
its main victim appeared to be E.A.D.S. Back in 2003, the
Euro-American feud over the Iraqi war was in its most critical
phase, as Chirac and Schroeder tried to lead Europe in a strategic
alignment with Russia against the U.S. unilateral views. Because
the French government maintains a golden share of 15% in E.A.D.S.,
and is deeply involved in its corporate governance, a blow to
E.A.D.S. credibility could have been a serious threat for the
Franco-German political-strategic combine.
To destabilise and weaken the E.A.D.S.'s governance would in fact
mean to damage the most important Franco-German defence and
aerospatial industry, with serious consequences for Airbus (80%
owned by E.A.D.S. ) as well.
E.A.D.S.'s main competitors globally are U.S. giants such as
Boeing and Lockheed Martin; however, E.A.D.S. also tried to seek
inroads in the U.S. market. The E.U. corporation is at the same
time a strong business rival for the U.S. majors and the core of
the European industrial military complex.
With the revival of the Clearstream affair, thus, E.A.D.S.
security looks once again endangered, although the present scandal
appears to be used maily by French political forces to gain a
decisive advantage before the presidential elections -
notwithstanding the experience shows that such political
manoeuvres around the issue may backfire. If Gergorin's position
will worsen in the follow-up of the investigation, the E.U.
giant's governance will be seriously struck, at a time of even
increased global competition in space, satellite, defence and
commercial jet industries.
In addition, the scandal may change the balance of power
inside E.A.D.S., since the German side in the group looks
irritated by the political machinations and could demand the
French state to reduce its involvement in E.A.D.S.
Such a possibility would highlight France's lack of a clear
industrial strategy, whereby market-oriented policies appear often
at odds with the need of protecting vital defense and
energy-related assets. It would also jeopardise Paris' ambitions
to politically lead the evolution of the European security and
defense policy.
Whereas such a development is only a possible, and not a certain
one, further calls for implementing an effective public policy in
the field of economic intelligence (i.e., economic patriotism) are
to be expected in France, as the country approaches key
presidential elections.
Conclusions
The Clearstream scandal is showing how strategic industrial
and political affairs are tightly linked in today's power and
interest struggles. Although the whole issue originated in a
specific context, and for some still partially obscure reasons,
its echoes are being used by different actors in order to pursue
their individual interests.
France – which is by far the most ambitious Western European
country when it comes to projecting its power and influence
globally – appears still vulnerable precisely in those strategic
sectors that Paris is trying to protect. The reason is that
France's economic security and intelligence dispositions, even if
largely theorised and discussed, look still flawed and exposed to
dangerous attacks.
Cet article a également été publié le 05 Juin 2006
dans The
Power and Interest News Report (PINR)
1.766 mots sur 1.766
Si vous souhaitez acquérir un droit de reproduction de cet
article, merci de contacter
Strategic-Road.com - If you would like to reprint this
article, thank you to contact
Strategic-Road.com.
Copyright © 1997-2005 Strategic-Road.com - Tous droits réservés,
All rights reserved - http://www.strategic-road.com +33 (0)4 76 31
01 86
Lectures...
Les scénarios
Clearstream
|
|
Pour information de nos lecteurs : Le Premier
Ministre, Dominique de Villepin, a déposé plainte pour diffamation
contre les auteurs des trois ouvrages ci-dessous
|
Clearstream,
l'enquête
Denis Robert
Denis Robert a révélé l'affaire Clearstream en
2001. Il enquête depuis cinq ans sur ce centre névralgique de la
finance. Il a été entraîné au cœur de la manipulation qui a affolé
l'industrie de la défense et les milieux politiques. Il raconte
aujourd'hui cette affaire d'Etat, à partir de documents inédits
|
|
Le
complot des paranos
Airy Routier
Tous ont menti. Certains de façon éhontée, d'autres par omission. Qui a
manipulé qui ? Airy Routier, qui connait intimement le milieu
politico-industriel et ses principaux protagonistes, met en perspective
cette bataille de chifonniers et démêle l'écheveau d'une affaire
compliquée à dessein
|
|
Règlement
de comptes
pour l’Elysée
Jean-Marie Pontaut
Gilles Gaetner
Depuis bientôt trois ans, un imbroglio menace de faire tomber des têtes
au sommet de l’État. L’affaire a un nom : Clearstream, et des
ramifications obscures dans la finance, la politique, la justice, jusqu’à
la mafia russe. D’où vient la manipulation ?
|
|
|
Contactez-nous
si vous désirez acquérir une licence vous
autorisant à effectuer une copie de cette page sur votre DD ou
Intranet
|
|
+Outils,
Services...
Nos
sélections de logiciels
(veille, recherche,
analyse, sécurité)
Parmi
les
logiciels sélectionnés par Strategic-Road.com :
Anonymous
Surfing
|
|
Anonymous
Surfing améliore votre vie privée en masquant votre
adresse IP à tous les sites Web que vous visitez :
avec Anonymous Surfing, Internet Explorer utilise l'un
des milliers de serveurs anonymes disponibles partout
dans le monde au lieu de se connecter directement au
site web que vous visitez. Vous pouvez ainsi naviguer
en toute sécurité et incognito !
Anonymous Surfing gère tous les aspects de votre
navigation anonyme : il va télécharger
automatiquement une liste de serveurs proxy anonymes
de la base de données centrale Anonyme Server, puis
choisit le serveur le plus rapide de votre connexion.
Anonymous Surfing optimise en permanence la vitesse de
votre connexion pour une navigation idéale (vous
pouvez remplacer son choix à tout moment). Anonyme
Surfing peut aussi varier ses choix en continu et aléatoirement
entre les serveurs anonymes de sorte que le même site
Web que vous visitez et revisitez ne puisse jamais
déceler qui vous êtes vraiment !
La base de données Omniquad Anonyme Server est régulièrement
mise à jour des listes des serveurs anonymes les plus
surs et les plus rapides. Vous pouvez choisir d'apparaître
à n'importe quel site web comme un visiteur provenant
de pratiquement n'importe où dans le monde...
Essayer
/ Acheter
|
|
|
|
L'actualité presse & web
L'actualité
en vidéo
