Semaine du 31/03 au 06/04/2007


Afghanistan - Vers une intensification des combats en Afghanistan
Alain Rodier, CF2R 04/07

"Dès le printemps 2007, les taliban devraient repasser à l’offensive en Afghanistan. Leurs premiers objectifs seront des installations militaires et gouvernementales situées dans les villes proches de la frontière pakistanaise. Pour cela, des assauts menés par des centaines de combattants et des attentats suicide devraient avoir lieu. Le record de 117 attaques suicide atteint en 2006 devrait être largement dépassé. Les services de renseignement occidentaux craignent que des attentats aient également lieu dans les principales villes du pays, notamment à Kaboul, afin d’obliger les forces internationales à diminuer la pression qu’elles exercent dans les provinces sud de l’Afghanistan..."


Royaume-Uni, Iran - The U.K.-Iran Crisis: The West Confronts a Rising Iran
Dr. Harsh V. Pant, PINR 02/04/07

"The latest crisis between Iran and the United Kingdom, which started when British sailors boarded an Indian-flagged commercial ship suspected of being involved in car smuggling in the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway, shows no sign of abating. British sailors and marines, numbering 15, were seized by Iranian naval forces as they were conducting operations on the Indian ship; the Iranians claimed that the British sailors were in Iranian territorial waters, an assertion refuted by the British. The dispute sparked anti-British protests in Iran, raised Middle East tensions, which were already high over concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, and sent shockwaves through the oil market. Iran is now planning to put the British military personnel on trial and has declared that legal proceedings against them have already commenced (although there is some confusion on this account)..."


Irak - Iraq’s Sectarian and Ethnic Violence and Its Evolving Insurgency
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Stragegic International Studies April 2, 2007

"The insurgency in Iraq has become a “war after the war” that threatens to divide the country and create a full-scale civil conflict. It has triggered a mix of sectarian and ethnic violence that dominates the struggle to reshape Iraq as a modern state, which has emerged as a growing threat to the Gulf region, and which has become linked to the broader struggle between Sunni and Shi’ite Islamist extremism, and moderation and reform, throughout the Islamic world.

Since its inception in the spring of 2003, the nature of the fighting in Iraq has evolved from a struggle between Coalition forces and former regime loyalists to a much more diffuse mix of conflicts, involving a number of Sunni groups, Shi’ite militias, and foreign jihadists. The insurgency is now dominated by Neo-Salafi Sunni extremists, seeking religious and ideological goals that extend far beyond Iraq.

In the process, however, the insurgency has created complex patterns of conflict that have become a broad struggle for sectarian and ethnic control of political and economic space. Open violence has become steadily more serious, but other forms of violence and intimidation now dominate. Sectarian and ethnic “cleansing” are dividing the country at every level, creating major refugee problems, and leading to the forced relocation of a significant amount of the population.

Shi’ite, Sunni, and Kurdish factions increasingly organize to provide local security while seeking to push other factions out of areas where they have the majority. These problems have been compounded by de facto exclusion of many ex-Ba’ath members and professionals that form the secular and nationalist core of the country, and the slow purging of other nationalists who do not take a sectarian and ethnic side from Ministries and professions..."


Etats-Unis, Iran - The Iran Sanctions Act
Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists) January 25, 2007

"No firms have been sanctioned under the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA). Set to expire in August 2006, bills in the 109th Congress, H.R. 282 (passed by the House on April 26, 2006), S. 333, and H.R. 6198 extended it and added provisions to apply it more strictly. The latter bill, (P.L. 109-293, signed September 30, 2006), extended it until December 31, 2011, changed its name from the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) to ISA by terminating application to Libya, and allows substantial Administration flexibility in applying the new provisions..."


Etats-Unis, Moyen-Orient - Democrats chart alternative ME strategy
Commentary by Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (02/04/07)

"The Bush administration's Middle East policy failures have been a primary contributor to the escalation of regional tensions, and alternative US foreign policy positions seeking greater dialogue and engagement are welcome..."


Etats-Unis, Moyen-Orient - In the Shadow of the Iraq War: America in Arab Eyes
Survival (via The Brookings Institution)

"The war has significantly altered the distribution of power and the calculations of governments in the region, and has widened the gap between governments and publics. In Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, central authority has been significantly weakened since the war and non-state militant actors have correspondingly been strengthened. Washington had hoped that a stable, pro-American Iraq, aided by the presence of significant American forces on its soil, would enhance America’s projection of power in the region. While America retains much power in the Middle East, certainly more than any other state, there is a regional perception that the United States has been weakened. This is evident in public-opinion polls showing that Arabs believe America is now weaker than it was before the Iraq War. The sense that American forces are over-stretched in Iraq has diminished America’s ability to project power elsewhere..."


Etats-Unis, Chine - China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities — Background and Issues for Congress
Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists) February 7, 2007

"Concern has grown in Congress and elsewhere about China’s military modernization. The topic is an increasing factor in discussions over future required U.S. Navy capabilities. The issue for Congress addressed in this report is: How should China’s military modernization be factored into decisions about U.S. Navy programs?..."


Ukraine - Ukraine: Hardball Politics Plunge into Political Crisis
Steven Pifer, Center for Strategic & International Studies April 3, 2007

"One year after Ukrainians elected a new Rada (parliament), a struggle for power grips the country and has escalated into a full-blown political crisis. On one side of the fight is President Victor Yushchenko, supported by key parliamentary opposition leader Yuliya Tymoshenko. On the other side are Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych and the majority coalition in the Rada. On April 2, Yushchenko issued a decree dissolving the Rada and scheduling new elections for May 27. The majority in the Rada (led by Yanukovych’s Regions Party) immediately rejected the decree as unconstitutional and said that it would continue to work. The sides are digging in, and the question is almost certainly headed for the Constitutional Court..."


Pakistan - Discord in Pakistan’s Northern Areas
International Crisis Group 2 April 2007

"Almost six decades after Pakistan’s independence, the constitutional status of the Federally Administered Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan), once a part of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir and now under Pakistani control, remains undetermined, with political autonomy a distant dream. The region’s inhabitants are embittered by Islamabad’s unwillingness to devolve power to its elected representatives, and a nationalist movement, which seeks independence, is gaining ground. The rise of sectarian extremism is an alarming consequence of this denial of basic political rights. Taking advantage of the weaknesses in the imposed dispensation, religious organisations espousing a narrow sectarian agenda are fanning the fires of sectarian hatred in a region where Sunnis, Shias and Ismailis have peacefully coexisted for several centuries..."


Pakistan - Pakistan and Terrorism: A Summary
Congressional Research Service (via Open CRS) March 27, 2007

"This report provides a summary review of issues related to Pakistan and terrorism, especially in the context of U.S. interests, policy goals, and relevant assistance.1 The outcomes of U.S. policies toward Pakistan since 9/11, while not devoid of meaningful successes, have neither neutralized anti-Western militants and reduced religious extremism in that country, nor have they contributed sufficiently to the stabilization of neighboring Afghanistan. Many observers thus urge a broad re-evaluation of such policies. For a substantive review, see a forthcoming CRS Report entitled Pakistan and Terrorism..."


Uzbekistan - A Face of Islam: Muhammad-Sodiq Muhammad-Yusuf
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace April 2007

"The role of Islam in the formally secular state of Uzbekistan remains a potentially volatile issue. Critics of President Karimov often cite his hard-line stance on radical Islam as a cornerstone of his authoritarian regime.  Whether Karimov will again seek to extend his time in office remains uncertain, yet it remains vitally important that both domestic and international actors understand the influence of Islam in Uzbekistan to understand the potential problems facing the nation and the Central Asian region more generally.

In this Carnegie Paper, A Face of Islam: Muhammad-Sodiq Muhammad-Yusuf, Martha Brill Olcott, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, provides an in-depth analysis of Sheikh Muhammad-Sodiq Muhammad-Yusuf—the most prominent theologian and unofficial spiritual leader of Uzbekistan.  Olcott gives insight into Muhammad-Sodiq’s life, his spiritual and ideological writings, and ultimately, his political agenda.  Given that this Uzbek cleric has a wide following in his country, including within the elite, Olcott’s examination of the life and mind of Muhammad-Sodiq provides a window into his country’s religious life..."


Energie, Europe - Experts: Europe must secure energy supplies
By Ahto Lobjakas for RFE/RL (03/04/07)

"The European Union has said diversifying energy supplies and transit routes is one of its most urgent priorities.

However, analysts say the EU needs to act fast if it wants to secure direct access to Central Asian oil and gas - and warn that Russia is purposely attempting to undermine some of the EU's key initiatives..."


Energie, Europe - TOWARD A RUSSIA-LED CARTEL FOR GAS?
By Vladimir Socor, Eurasia Daily Monitor March 30, 2007

"Proposals for the Gas-Exporting Countries’ Forum to consider the possibility of forming a cartel have in recent weeks been aired by the presidents of Russia, Iran, and Algeria, as well as the Emir of Qatar, from among the major exporting countries; and also by Venezuela (now a small but up-and-coming producer and exporter of gas), Trinidad and Tobago (a significant exporter of liquefied gas) and several others from among lesser potential members of such a cartel. Moreover, Venezuela has urged gas-rich Bolivia and Argentina to join a South American gas exporters’ cartel. Algeria’s Sonatrach is the second-largest exporter of gas (after Russia’s Gazprom) to the European Union and leading supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU..."


Lire également, Read also :

GAS SUPPLIERS’ CARTEL: NOT AN “OPEC,” BUT CARTEL ALL THE SAME
By Vladimir Socor, Eurasia Daily Monitor March 29, 2007


Terrorisme - Financial Crimes Enforcement Network’s Annual Report for FY 2006
Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN)

"The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) seeks to enhance U.S. national security and to make the financial system increasingly resistant to abuse by money launderers, terrorists and their financial supporters, and other perpetrators of crime. In pursuit of these aims, FinCEN relies on the expertise of a small but growing staff—now just over 300 employees—as well as on a broad range of collaborative partnerships..."


Terrorisme - Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment
RAND Corporation April 5, 2007

"Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on April 5, 2007..."


Afrique - Economic Report on Africa 2007: Accelerating Africa’s Development through Diversification
Economic Commission for Africa / United Nations

"African economies are forecast to grow by an average of 5.8% in 2007, according to the latest edition of the Economic Report on Africa (ERA 2007), the annual flagship publication of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), which is launched today.

The report, titled “Accelerating Africa’s Development through Diversification,” notes that African economies continued to sustain the growth momentum of previous years, recording an overall real GDP growth rate of 5.7% in 2006. 28 countries recorded higher economic growth rates in 2006 than 2005.

According to the report, Africa’s recent growth performance was underpinned by improvements in macroeconomic management in many countries as well as strong global demand for key African export commodities, resulting in high export prices, especially for crude oil, metals and minerals..."


Afrique du Sud, Energie - South Africa Energy Analysis Briefs
US Energy Information Administration

"South Africa is a significant coal exporter but imports large amounts of oil and some natural gas. The country has a highly developed synthetic fuels industry that uses coal, condensate and natural gas as feedstock..."


Thailande, Energie - Thailand Energy Analysis Briefs
US Energy Information Administration

"Thailand is a net importer of oil and natural gas, although the country is a growing producer of natural gas..."


Energie - Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006)
US Energy Information Administration

"Each year since 1996, EIA’s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting has produced a comparison between realized energy outcomes and the projections included in previous editions of the AEO. Each year, the comparison adds the projections from the most recent AEO and updates the historical data to the most recently available. The comparison summarizes the relationship of the AEO reference case projections since 1982 to realized outcomes by calculating the average absolute percent differences for several of the major variables for AEO82 through AEO2006..."


Energie - Natural Gas Year-In-Review 2006
US Energy Information Administration

"This is a special report that provides an overview of the natural gas industry and markets in 2006 with special focus on the first complete set of supply and disposition data for 2006 from the Energy Information Administration. Topics discussed include natural gas end-use consumption trends, effects of the 2005 hurricanes on offshore production, imports and exports of pipeline and liquefied natural gas, and the above-average storage inventories in 2006..."


Climat - Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - Summary for Policymakers
Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,  Fourth Assessment Report 06/04/07

"This Summary sets out the key policy-relevant findings of the Fourth Assessment of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The Assessment is of current scientific understanding of impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems, the capacity of these systems to adapt and their vulnerability1. It builds upon past IPCC assessments and incorporates new knowledge gained since the Third Assessment.

Statements in this Summary are based on chapters in the Assessment and principal sources are given at the end of each paragraph..."


Espace - Highlights in Space 2006
United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs

"This publication has been compiled from reports prepared for the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. It was first published in 1992 as part of the United Nations activities undertaken for the International Space Year, with the objective of making all countries aware of the benefits of sound space activities.

The first part of the report on space technology, space applications, international cooperation and space law, was prepared by the International Astronautical Federation (IAF) and covers the period from 1 November 2005 to 31 October 2006. In addition, the International Institute of Space Law (IISL) provided information for the section on international cooperation and space law. The second part, focusing on space science and recent progress made regarding space research, was prepared by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and covers the period from 1 November 2004 to 31 October 2006. Many international experts from various specialized fields have contributed to the drafting of this comprehensive report. The information contained therein indicates a wide variety of ongoing space activities in national as well as international space programmes..."