Semaine du 27/01 au 03/02/2007


Etats-Unis, Irak, Iran - Zbigniew Brzezinski Testimony - Senate Foreign Relations Commitee February 1, 2007

"Mr. Chairman:

Your hearings come at a critical juncture in the U.S. war of choice in Iraq, and I commend you and Senator Lugar for scheduling them.

It is time for the White House to come to terms with two central realities:

1. The war in Iraq is a historic, strategic, and moral calamity. Undertaken under false assumptions, it is undermining America's global legitimacy. Its collateral civilian casualties as well as some abuses are tarnishing America's moral credentials. Driven by Manichean impulses and imperial hubris, it is intensifying regional instability.

2. Only a political strategy that is historically relevant rather than reminiscent of colonial tutelage can provide the needed framework for a tolerable resolution of both the war in Iraq and the intensifying regional tensions.

If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq, the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. A plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks; followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure; then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the U.S. blamed on Iran; culminating in a "defensive" U.S. military action against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

A mythical historical narrative to justify the case for such a protracted and potentially expanding war is already being articulated. Initially justified by false claims about WMD's in Iraq, the war is now being redefined as the "decisive ideological struggle" of our time, reminiscent of the earlier collisions with Nazism and Stalinism. In that context, Islamist extremism and al Qaeda are presented as the equivalents of the threat posed by Nazi Germany and then Soviet Russia, and 9/11 as the equivalent of the Pearl Harbor attack which precipitated America's involvement in World War II.

This simplistic and demagogic narrative overlooks the fact that Nazism was based on the military power of the industrially most advanced European state; and that Stalinism was able to mobilize not only the resources of the victorious and militarily powerful Soviet Union but also had worldwide appeal through its Marxist doctrine. In contrast, most Muslims are not embracing Islamic fundamentalism; al Qaeda is an isolated fundamentalist Islamist aberration; most Iraqis are engaged in strife because the American occupation of Iraq destroyed the Iraqi state; while Iran -- though gaining in regional influence -- is itself politically divided, economically and militarily weak. To argue that America is already at war in the region with a wider Islamic threat, of which Iran is the epicenter, is to promote a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Deplorably, the Administration's foreign policy in the Middle East region has lately relied almost entirely on such sloganeering. Vague and inflammatory talk about "a new strategic context" which is based on "clarity" and which prompts "the birth pangs of a new Middle East" is breeding intensifying anti-Americanism and is increasing the danger of a long-term collision between the United States and the Islamic world. Those in charge of U.S. diplomacy have also adopted a posture of moralistic self-ostracism toward Iran strongly reminiscent of John Foster Dulles's attitude of the early 1950's toward Chinese Communist leaders (resulting among other things in the well-known episode of the refused handshake). It took some two decades and a half before another Republican president was finally able to undo that legacy.

One should note here also that practically no country in the world shares the Manichean delusions that the Administration so passionately articulates. The result is growing political isolation of, and pervasive popular antagonism toward the U.S. global posture.

It is obvious by now that the American national interest calls for a significant change of direction. There is in fact a dominant consensus in favor of a change: American public opinion now holds that the war was a mistake; that it should not be escalated, that a regional political process should be explored; and that an Israeli-Palestinian accommodation is an essential element of the needed policy alteration and should be actively pursued. It is noteworthy that profound reservations regarding the Administration's policy have been voiced by a number of leading Republicans. One need only invoke here the expressed views of the much admired President Gerald Ford, former Secretary of State James Baker, former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft and several leading Republican senators, John Warner, Chuck Hagel, and Gordon Smith among others.

The urgent need today is for a strategy that seeks to create a political framework for a resolution of the problems posed both by the US occupation of Iraq and by the ensuing civil and sectarian conflict. Ending the occupation and shaping a regional security dialogue should be the mutually reinforcing goals of such a strategy, but both goals will take time and require a genuinely serious U.S. commitment.

The quest for a political solution for the growing chaos in Iraq should involve four steps:

1. The United States should reaffirm explicitly and unambiguously its determination to leave Iraq in a reasonably short period of time.

Ambiguity regarding the duration of the occupation in fact encourages unwillingness to compromise and intensifies the on-going civil strife. Moreover, such a public declaration is needed to allay fears in the Middle East of a new and enduring American imperial hegemony. Right or wrong, many view the establishment of such a hegemony as the primary reason for the American intervention in a region only recently free of colonial domination. That perception should be discredited from the highest U.S. level. Perhaps the U.S. Congress could do so by a joint resolution.

2. The United States should announce that it is undertaking talks with the Iraqi leaders to jointly set with them a date by which U.S. military disengagement should be completed, and the resulting setting of such a date should be announced as a joint decision. In the meantime, the U.S. should avoid military escalation.

It is necessary to engage all Iraqi leaders -- including those who do not reside within "the Green Zone" -- in a serious discussion regarding the proposed and jointly defined date for U.S. military disengagement because the very dialogue itself will help identify the authentic Iraqi leaders with the self-confidence and capacity to stand on their own legs without U.S. military protection. Only Iraqi leaders who can exercise real power beyond "the Green Zone" can eventually reach a genuine Iraqi accommodation. The painful reality is that much of the current Iraqi regime, characterized by the Bush administration as "representative of the Iraqi people," defines itself largely by its physical location: the 4 sq. miles-large U.S. fortress within Baghdad, protected by a wall in places 15 feet thick, manned by heavily armed U.S. military, popularly known as "the Green Zone."

3. The United States should issue jointly with appropriate Iraqi leaders, or perhaps let the Iraqi leaders issue, an invitation to all neighbors of Iraq (and perhaps some other Muslim countries such as Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, and Pakistan) to engage in a dialogue regarding how best to enhance stability in Iraq in conjunction with U.S. military disengagement and to participate eventually in a conference regarding regional stability.

The United States and the Iraqi leadership need to engage Iraq's neighbors in serious discussion regarding the region's security problems, but such discussions cannot be undertaken while the U.S. is perceived as an occupier for an indefinite duration. Iran and Syria have no reason to help the United States consolidate a permanent regional hegemony. It is ironic, however, that both Iran and Syria have lately called for a regional dialogue, exploiting thereby the self-defeating character of the largely passive -- and mainly sloganeering -- U.S. diplomacy.

A serious regional dialogue, promoted directly or indirectly by the U.S., could be buttressed at some point by a wider circle of consultations involving other powers with a stake in the region's stability, such as the EU, China, Japan, India, and Russia. Members of this Committee might consider exploring informally with the states mentioned their potential interest in such a wider dialogue.

4. Concurrently, the United States should activate a credible and energetic effort to finally reach an Israeli-Palestinian peace, making it clear in the process as to what the basic parameters of such a final accommodation ought to involve.

The United States needs to convince the region that the U.S. is committed both to Israel's enduring security and to fairness for the Palestinians who have waited for more than forty years now for their own separate state. Only an external and activist intervention can promote the long-delayed settlement for the record shows that the Israelis and the Palestinians will never do so on their own. Without such a settlement, both nationalist and fundamentalist passions in the region will in the longer run doom any Arab regime which is perceived as supportive of U.S. regional hegemony.

After World War II, the United States prevailed in the defense of democracy in Europe because it successfully pursued a long-term political strategy of uniting its friends and dividing its enemies, of soberly deterring aggression without initiating hostilities, all the while also exploring the possibility of negotiated arrangements. Today, America's global leadership is being tested in the Middle East. A similarly wise strategy of genuinely constructive political engagement is now urgently needed.

It is also time for the Congress to assert itself."


Irak - Op-Chart: 31 Days in Iraq
NYT Published: February 3, 2007

"In January more than 1,900 people — soldiers, security officers and civilians — were killed in the insurgency in Iraq, up from 800 in January 2006. Many corpses showed signs of torture, meaning the victims were probably killed by religious and tribal death squads. This map, based on data from the American, British and Iraqi governments and from news reports, shows the dates, locations and circumstances of deaths for the first month of the year. Given the vast size of Iraq and the communications difficulties inherent in war, the information may be incomplete. Nonetheless, it is our effort to visually depict the continuing human cost of the Iraq war..."


Irak - Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead
National Intelligence Estimate, Office of the US Director of National Intelligence January 2007

"...Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006..."

"...Iraq’s neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics. Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq. Syria continues to provide safehaven for expatriate Iraqi Bathists and to take less than adequate measures to stop the flow of foreign jihadists into Iraq..."

"...The Intelligence Community judges that the term 'civil war' does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term 'civil war' accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements..."


Irak - Iraq’s Political Factions: The Last Chance to Build a Governing Coalition?
MIT, Center for International Studies January 2007

"Iraqi politics is presently at a stalemate. There are four main political factions in the country, and only two can agree on anything. This is not enough to govern. At least one of the other factions must change its position, and it will be a tall order to bring that about..."


Irak, Reconstruction - Review of Iraq Reconstruction
SIGIR January 18, 2007 United States House Armed Services Committee

"On Thursday, January 18, 2007, Stuart W. Bowen, Jr., Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction provided testimony before a U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Armed Services oversight hearing on Iraq reconstruction..."


Voir également, See also :

Quarterly Reports to Congress
These reports, published 30 days following the end of each fiscal-year quarter, summarize SIGIR findings including audits, inspections, investigations, and analysis of data and developments related to Iraq reconstruction progress. The activities of the Inspector General during each quarter and updates on the various SIGIR initiatives including Lessons Learned are also reported.


Climat - Climate Change 2007 - Summary For Policymakers
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 02/02/07

"Paris, 2 February 2007 – Late last night, Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) adopted the Summary for Policymakers of the first volume of “Climate Change 2007”, also known as the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

“Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis”, assesses the current scientific knowledge of the natural and human drivers of climate change, observed changes in climate, the ability of science to attribute changes to different causes, and projections for future climate change.

The report was produced by some 600 authors from 40 countries. Over 620 expert reviewers and a large number of government reviewers also participated. Representatives from 113 governments reviewed and revised the Summary line-by-line during the course of this week before adopting it and accepting the underlying report..."


Climat - The European Community’s initial report under the Kyoto Protocol
European Environment Agency 2006

"This report is an update of the submission of the European Community sent at 18 December 2006 to the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to facilitate the calculation of the assigned amount pursuant to Article 3, paragraphs 7 and 8 under the Kyoto Protocol, and demonstrate its capacity to account for its emissions and assigned amountfor the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol..."


Climat, Etats-Unis - Committee Holds Hearing on Political Influence on Government Climate Change Scientists
Source: Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, U.S. House of Representatives

"The Oversight Committee held a hearing on January 30 regarding political interference in the work of government climate change scientists. In preparation for the hearing, Chairman Waxman and Ranking Member Davis requested documents from the Council on Environmental Quality related to allegations that officials edited scientific reports and took other actions to minimize the significance of climate change."

+ Documents (PDFs)

- Chairman Waxman’s Opening Statement
- Hearing Notice and Witness List
- Atmosphere of Pressure: Political Interference in Federal Climate Science
- Witness Testimony: Francesca T. Grifo, Ph.D., Union of Concerned Scientists
- Witness Testimony: Rick Piltz, Government Accountability Project
- Witness Testimony: Dr. Drew T. Shindell
- Witness Testimony: Roger A. Pielke, Jr., University of Colorado, Boulder
- Memo to Committee Members Regarding CEQ Documents
- Letter to CEQ Chairman James Connaughton


Espace, Chine, Etats-Unis - Star Wars? Not this decade
By Giuseppe Anzera, PINR/Asia Times 30/01/07

"On January 11, China became the third country, after the United States and Russia, to have successfully destroyed a low-Earth-orbiting satellite with a ground-launched ballistic missile. Most probably it was a DF-21 missile carrying a "kinetic kill vehicle". Similar operations with a DF-31 had repeatedly failed.

This Chinese anti-satellite (ASAT) mission, which some alarmists have unnecessarily termed "the first step toward a space war", deserves careful analysis both from a general strategic standpoint and, in particular, in relation to the space control aspects involved..."


Chine, Etats-Unis - The State of U.S.-China Diplomacy
Remarks by Thomas J. Christensen, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, February 2, 2007

"...We continue to work closely with China, engaging on an extremely broad range of issues, cooperating on issues in which we can find common ground, but also discussing in a frank and candid manner the issues on which we do not see eye-to-eye. In those areas in which we differ, we encourage China to understand our concerns and change its behavior in ways that will advance not only our interests, but also its own. The tone of our discussions with China is consistent and firm and based on what we know to be true: that the changes we encourage China to undertake-internationally and domestically-will benefit China as a nation and a member of the global community. U.S.-China relations are far from a zero-sum game. A strong U.S. regional presence combined with constructive and candid diplomatic engagement should serve to deepen areas of cooperation and reduce the likelihood of backsliding in the relationship..."


Etats-Unis, Irak, Moyen-Orient - Iraq’s Sectarian and Ethnic Violence and the Evolving Insurgency
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies January 29, 2007

"The insurgency in Iraq has become a “war after the war” that threatens to divide the country and create a full-scale civil conflict. It has triggered sectarian and ethnic violence that dominates the struggle to reshape Iraq as a modern state, has emerged as a growing threat to the Gulf region, and has become linked to the broader struggle between Sunni and Shi’ite Islamist extremism, and moderation and reform, throughout the Islamic world.

Since its inception in the spring of 2003, the nature of the fighting in Iraq has evolved from a struggle between Coalition forces and former regime loyalists to a much more diffuse conflict, involving a number of Sunni groups, Shi’ite militias, and foreign jihadists, and which has spread to become a widespread civil conflict.

In the process, the complex patterns of conflict in Iraq have become a broad struggle for sectarian and ethnic control of political and economic space. Open violence has become steadily more serious, but it is only part of the story. Shi’ite, Sunni, and Kurdish factions increasingly organize to provide local security while seeking to push other factions out of areas where they have the majority. These problems have been compounded by de facto exclusion of many ex- Ba’ath members and professionals that form the secular and nationalist core of the country, and the slow purging of other nationalists who do not take a sectarian and ethnic side from Ministries and professions..."


Bangladesh - Islamist extremism in Bangladesh
CRS Report 31/01/07

"There is concern among observers that the secular underpinnings of moderate Bangladesh are being undermined by a culture of political violence and the rise of Islamist extremists. A further deterioration of Bangladesh’s democracy and political stability may create additional space within which Islamist militants may be increasingly free to operate. Such a development may have destabilizing implications for Bangladesh, South Asia, and the Islamic world. They also have the potential to undermine U.S. interests..."


Afghanistan - Fulfilling the Commitment to Success in Afghanistan
Condoleezza Rice, Secretary of State, Prepared Remarks at the NATO Afghanistan Contributing Nations Meeting, Brussels, Belgium
January 26, 2007

"...We are winning, and that’s why the Taliban is fighting back, and why the Afghan people depend on us to help them succeed. Let there be no doubt: Success in Afghanistan is measured in many ways – in political terms, in economic terms, in terms of human development.

I agree with my European colleagues: Ours is a humanitarian mission, and military force alone cannot guarantee success. We all recognize this..."


Lire également, read also :

On-the-Record Briefing on Afghanistan
R. Nicholas Burns, Under Secretary of State, and John Fox, Director of the Office of Afghanistan Affairs, Washington, DC January 26, 2007


Afghanistan - Ending Afghanistan’s Civil War 
James Dobbins, RAND Corporation, Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on January 30, 2007.”


Sécurité du Territoire - Basic Principles for Homeland Security 
Brian Michael Jenkins, , RAND Corporation, Testimony presented before the House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Homeland Security on January 30, 2007


Defense, Etats-Unis - A Successful Test Shows the Way Forward on Missile Defense
Peter Brookes and Baker Spring,  Heritage Foundation February 1, 2007

"A significant national security development took place last weekend that barely garnered a footnote in the national media: A U.S. missile defense interceptor hit--and destroyed--a target missile over the Pacific. This is a big step forward for the U.S.'s leverage against hostile regimes that would develop ballistic missiles.

The successful test of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system adds to U.S. land-based capabilities to counter the growing short and medium range ballistic missile and nuclear threats from rogue states like Iran and North Korea..."


Defense, Etats-Unis - Joint Publication 3-13.1, Electronic Warfare
U.S. Department of Defense (via Federation of American Scientists) 25/01/07

"The report, “Joint Publication 3-13.1, Electronic Warfare,” released Jan. 25, establishes the rules for electronic-warfare planning, preparation, execution and assessment in support of joint operations across U.S. military services, and the basis for involvement in multinational operations..."


Terrorisme - Black ICE Bioterrorism International Coordination Exercise
Remarks by Henry A. Crumpton, U.S. Coordinator for Counterterrorism January 17, 2007

"...Black ICE, a U.S.-Swiss co-hosted bioterrorism tabletop exercise for senior leaders from international organizations, emphasized the role of international organizations in a bioterrorism response and how they would interact with national governments..."

Black ICE After Action Report


Terrorisme, Royaume-Uni - Living Apart Together: British Muslims and the paradox of multiculturalism
Policy Exchange

"...a major new survey of the attitudes of Muslims in Britain and the reasons behind the rapid rise in Islamic fundamentalism amongst the younger generation. The research finds that there is a growing religiosity amongst the younger generation of Muslims and that they feel that they have less in common with non-Muslims than do their parents. Significantly, they exhibit a much stronger preference for Islamic schools and sharia law and place a greater stress on asserting their identity publicly, for example, by wearing the hijab..."


WMD, Prolifération - Priority Steps to Strengthen the Nonproliferation Regime
Pierre Goldschmidt, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 02/2007

"The greater the number of states possessing nuclear weapons, the greater the risk that one day, by design or accident, they will be used by a state or a non-state actor with catastrophic consequences. The international community must therefore reject the recent tendency to accept the idea that, sooner or later, more countries will possess nuclear weapons, and that we can do nothing to stop it. There are more steps that can be taken to “dissuade” and “deter” non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) from acquiring such weapons, if the international community— particularly the nuclear weapons states—make this a higher priority other than in words..."


Technologies, Défense - Strategic Plan - Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) February 2007

"This document describes the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) strategy, as required by Section 2352, Title 10 of the United States Code. It provides a top-level view of DARPA’s activities for Congress, the research community, and various elements of the Department of Defense (DoD).

This strategic plan describes DARPA’s mission, business processes, research thrusts and objectives, and research projects that achieve the objectives..."


Etats-Unis - President Bush Delivers State of the Economy Report
White House, Office of the Press Secretary, Transcript of speech given in Federal Hall, NYC, on January 31.

Related documents:

State of the Economy Overview
Fact Sheet: State of the Economy
In Focus: Jobs and Economy


Energie - Forecasts & Analyses analyses and projections of energy information
US Energy Information Administration

"Monthly and yearly energy forecasts, analyses of energy topics, financial analyses, Congressional reports..."


Technologiques - The 25 Fastest-Growing Tech Companies
Forbes 01.26.07

Voir aussi, See also :

Report Looks at Results of Companies on 2006 List
Forbes 01.31.07

Forbes Midas 100
Forbes 01.25.07


Elections 2007 - Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité, Sarko-Disco !

DiscoSarko
"Avec Disco Sarko, faites bouger Nicolas Sarkozy sur le dance floor..."

ou, comment faire passer Sarko pour "disco" et récupérer des données sur des supporters potentiel.


"Les Sarkonautes sont une équipe de jeunes et de professionnels de l’internet qui souhaitent soutenir l’action de Nicolas Sarkozy sur internet..."


Lire également, Read also :

'Le Web' plays new role in France race
AP 29/01/07

"...Sarkozy's site http://www.discosarko.com is part of an effort to market the interior minister as hip and in-touch with the times and to collect contact details from potential supporters. It asks visitors to leave e-mail addresses and mobile phone numbers so they can be reached ahead of the April-May presidential vote..."