27/06/06 - La nouvelle vision stratégique d'Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda Strategic Vision: Engage the U.S. Overseas, Not at Home
The Blotter 27/06/06

"Al Qaeda's strategic vision involves challenging the United States and its allies overseas using small- to medium-scale attacks, according to an online book available on extremist websites that has become the seminal jihadi textbook. The first English translation of the text is being circulated this week among DOD and government policy circles.

The translation is being released by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point.  As ABC News reported last month, the Center has been translating thousands of declassified insurgent and extremist documents that were seized in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Abu Bakr Naji, an al Qaeda insider and author of the book, "The Management of Savagery," believes that the 9/11 attacks accomplished what they needed to by forcing the U.S. to commit their military overseas.  He says 9/11 forced the U.S. to fall into the "trap" of overextending their military and that "it began to become clear to the American administration that it was being drained."

He says that al Qaeda shouldn't be focused on any more of those kinds of attacks for now.

"The focus is on mid- to small-range targets in the region and not go after big symbolic targets like the Twin Towers," says Will McCants, a fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, who translated the 268-page document.

McCants describes Naji as a highly placed, well-informed insider whose book lays out the big strategic vision of al Qaeda.

McCants believes that Naji is very concerned that a large-scale attack, such as the aborted chemical attack that would have targeted New York City subways in early 2003, would alienate al Qaeda's constituency. "Naji is wary of initiating that sort of attack because right now he feels al Qaeda has the upper-hand in the public relations battle," said McCants.

While written in 2004, Naji was already inferring that the war in Iraq was shaping up to be exactly what al Qaeda wanted.

"Naji believes the way you really hurt empires is to make them commit their military far from their base of operations," according to McCants.

According to Naji, this strategy has two main benefits. First, there is the propaganda victory of forcing a superpower to challenge al Qaeda directly.

"The point is to make them come in," McCants said. "You'll be seen as fighting the crusaders directly so you'll win over the public."

Second, it also puts pressure on local governments, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who face domestic pressure once they are associated with the United States.

Not to mention the situation within the United States. Naji believes that by committing militarily overseas, the U.S. will drain itself economically and face domestic pressure from within.

"That's the way they want to get to the U.S.," said McCants."


Voir, See :

The Management of Savagery
By Abu Bakr Naji
Translated by William McCants


27/06/06 - La montée en puissance de la "Shanghai Cooperation Organization"

America's Foil in Central Asia
CFR 15/06/06

"The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has begun its annual summit amid growing questions about its role as a regional hedge against U.S. influence. Though multilateral organizations have enjoyed scant success among the post-Soviet states of Central Asia, the SCO is an exception, as explained in this new Backgrounder. The group's burgeoning influence in the region was highlighted by the presence of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who said his country's inclusion in the group could "prevent the threats of domineering powers and their aggressive interference in global affairs" (Guardian). Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not mention Iran in their opening summit addresses, but they are both scheduled to meet with Ahmadinejad in the next two days (Reuters)..."


The Rise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
CFR 12/06/06

"Leaders of the six states—China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—comprising the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet in Shanghai June 15 to discuss security issues in Central Asia. Celebrating its five-year anniversary, the SCO began in 2001 as a confidence-building mechanism to resolve border disputes but in recent years has risen in stature and scope. It made headlines last July by issuing a timeline for U.S. forces to pull out of Uzbekistan, a move that led some to say the organization had emerged as a powerful anti-U.S. bulwark in the region. Others say that because of inherent frictions between its two main members, Russia and China, the SCO is unlikely to pose a threat to U.S. interests in Central Asia. Meanwhile, talks are under way to amend the group's mission statement to include, among other things, increased military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism drills. There is growing speculation that Iran, currently one of four observers to the SCO, may soon join the organization. Its president is expected to be present at the Shanghai summit..."