Semaine du 24 au 30/03/2007


Afghanistan - Breaking Point: Measuring Progress in Afghanistan
Seema Patel and Steven Ross, Center for Strategic & International Studies March 29, 2007

"The report's conclusions are based on 1,000 structured conversations that took place in half of Afghanistan's provinces; 13 surveys, polls, and focus groups; 200 expert interviews; and the daily monitoring of 70 media sources and 182 organizations. The current study is a follow-up to a 2005 baseline report..."


Iran - UN passes new Iran sanctions resolution
By RFE/RL staff (26/03/07)

"The UN Security Council has unanimously approved a resolution authorizing expanded sanctions against Iran for its continuing failure to halt uranium enrichment..."


Iran - UN Sanctions and Iranian Arms Imports
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies March 26, 2007

"It is not clear as yet how the new UN sanctions on Iran will affect its arms imports. What is clear is that Iran’s conventional forces are now heavily worn, obsolescent, and often were delivered before the fall of the Shah. Moreover, Iran lost some 60% of its land weaponry during the final battles of the Iran-Iraq War, and has never been able to replace and modernize its conventional forces.

Iran has faced serious financial problems in funding its force modernization, compounded by the systematic mismanagement of its economy. Iran's economy is overdependent on oil export revenues, with such revenues representing around 80-90 percent of total export earnings and 40-50 percent of the government budget; according to one source, revenues form oil monopoly rents comprised 63% of Iranian state revenues in 2004..."


Iran - Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies March 26, 2007

"The “Persian” or “Arabian” Gulf creates major strategic uncertainties for Iran, its neighbors, and the world. It is a 600-mile-long body of water that separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, and one of the most strategic waterways in the world due to its importance in world oil transportation. Incidents in the Gulf can escalate quickly in ways that neither Iran nor its potential opponents intend. Iran’s actions in Lebanon and in dealing with Hamas and the PIJ can provoke other unintended crises, and Iran is caught up in a broader, Sunni-dominated struggle for the future of Islam where some key Sunni Islamist extremist movements deny the legitimacy of Shi’ite beliefs. Military history is rarely determined by intentions and policy in peacetime, and crisis management often becomes an oxymoron as event spiral out of control, misperceptions dominate actions, and escalation becomes both asymmetric and an end in itself..."


Iran, Russie - Russia Shifts Course on Iran
PINR 28/03/07

"Moscow's decision against delivering nuclear fuel to Iran's Bushehr reactor demonstrates a change in Russian foreign policy. Previously, Russia has supported Iran throughout its confrontation with the United States and with the West over its nuclear research program. Russia saw relations with Iran as positive for a number of reasons: Iran is a major purchaser of Russian arms and nuclear technology; Iran's negative relationship with the United States has encouraged Moscow to support it against U.S. ambitions in the region, which Russia sees as a threat to its interests in the Middle East and to its near abroad; and Russia, along with China, has been pursuing a policy of multipolarity in world affairs, which means that Washington's attempts to limit the ambitions of regional powers should be opposed. In light of these interests, Moscow's decision on Bushehr signifies a change in its foreign policy toward Iran..."


Etats-Unis - How a Three-Word Mantra Has Undermined America
By Zbigniew Brzezinski Sunday, Washington Post March 25, 2007

"The "war on terror" has created a culture of fear in America. The Bush administration's elevation of these three words into a national mantra since the horrific events of 9/11 has had a pernicious impact on American democracy, on America's psyche and on U.S. standing in the world. Using this phrase has actually undermined our ability to effectively confront the real challenges we face from fanatics who may use terrorism against us..."


Etats-Unis, Chine - Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States
RAND Corporation 2007

"U.S. strategists have become increasingly concerned that an adversary might use “antiaccess” strategies to interfere with our ability to deploy or operate military forces overseas. The authors analyzed Chinese military-doctrinal publications to see what strategies China might employ in the event of a conflict with the United States. They then assessed how these strategies might affect U.S. military operations and identified ways to reduce these effects. It appears possible that China could use antiaccess strategies to defeat the United States in a conflict — not in the sense of destroying the U.S. military but in the sense of accomplishing China’s military and political objectives while preventing the United States from accomplishing all or some of its own. The United States can, however, take steps to counter such threats, including strengthening active and passive defenses at theater air bases, diversifying basing options for aircraft, and strengthening defenses against covert operative attack. In addition, the U.S. military needs to acquire or improve its capabilities in a number of areas, including ballistic and cruise missile defense, antisubmarine warfare, and minesweeping..."


Afrique, Etats-Unis, Chine - Political Warfare in Sub-Saharan Africa: U.S. Capabilities and Chinese Operations in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa
Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College March 26, 2007

"Domestic and international terrorism aside, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), are vying for influence over African governments and people. Not unlike the Cold War, the primary means of exerting influence in Africa is through the use of nonviolent instruments of grand strategy. The author considers one nonviolent instrument of grand strategy in particular, political warfare. He suggests that the PRC has used political warfare as its leading grand strategic instrument in Africa and offers a concise, detailed overview of U.S. capabilities to conduct political warfare in Africa in four of its nation-states..."


Afrique, Europe - La dimension internationale de l’Union européenne à l’épreuve de l’Afrique
in Note de Veille n° 46, Centre d’analyse stratégique 19 février 2007

"La dimension internationale de l’Union européenne reste un sujet de débat. L’historien André Kaspi considère ainsi qu’« il n’y a pas de politique étrangère qui vaille pour l’Union européenne tout entière2 ». A contrario, Franck Petiteville estime que « l’UE est ainsi devenue un acteur international « global » ayant vocation à intervenir aussi bien dans le champ de la diplomatie internationale que dans celui de l’économie politique internationale3 ».

Si la nature des relations établies entre les États membres de l’Union constitue probablement son apport le plus original à l’ordre international, c’est son action en dehors d’Europe qui pourra lui valoir d’être considérée comme un acteur des relations internationales. Deux chercheurs américains, James Caporaso et Joseph Jupille4, considèrent que l’UE doit pour cela satisfaire à quatre critères : disposer d’une autorité légale ; être reconnue comme telle par les autres acteurs ; bénéficier d’une autonomie dans la définition et la conduite de sa politique, en particulier vis-àvis de ses États membres ; assurer une cohérence à l’ensemble de ses actions extérieures. 

Le traité de Maastricht a apporté une réponse très claire sur le premier point. Les trois autres pourraient trouver des éléments de réponse dans la politique africaine de l’Union, qui a pris une importance croissante dans sa politique extérieure. Trois exemples récents d’interventions ou d’initiatives en Afrique permettent d’apprécier la dimension internationale de la politique de l’Union européenne à l’aune des critères posés ci-dessus.


Afrique, Europe - L’action des européens en Afrique dans le domaine de la sécurité
Centre d’analyse stratégique 10/06

"Le Centre d’analyse stratégique a organisé le 25 octobre 2006 un séminaire fermé sur "l’action des européens en Afrique dans le domaine de la sécurité."

L’objectif du séminaire a été de déterminer à partir d’études de cas les logiques à l’œuvre dans l’établissement de la politique européenne de sécurité et de défense, tant dans le processus de décision et de financement que dans la coordination entre les différentes institutions.

Trois tables rondes ont permis de confronter les points de vue de spécialistes autour d’une présentation théorique et du témoignage d’acteurs : 1. L’UE et les Etats membres : les programmes de développement des capacités africaines. 2. Les différentes formes de l’aide de l’UE à la République Démocratique du Congo. 3. L’UE comme acteur international : le cas du Darfour..."

Pour consulter les actes de ce séminaire


Egypte, Moyen-Orient - Inside Egypt's nuclear debate
By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (26/03/07)

"An internal Egyptian nuclear debate and international pressure will be crucial in determining whether Egypt quietly drops its atomic plans or pushes on with the program..."


Asie - The Politics of Identity: History, Nationalism, and the Prospect for Peace in Post-Cold War East Asia
Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College March 29, 2007

"Both the Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula harbor real dangers for the Northeast Asian region. The clash between an increasingly divergent nationalist identity in China and in Taiwan represent a new challenge for U.S. policy in this area. Similarly, the rise of pan-Korean nationalism in South Korea, and an unpredictable North Korean regime that has succeeded in driving a wedge between Seoul and Washington, has created another highly combustible zone of potential conflict. The author explores how the United States might respond to the emerging new nationalism in the region in order to promote stability and peace. Offering a constructivist approach which highlights the central role that memory, history and identity play in international relations, the monograph offers wide-ranging implications for U.S. foreign policy..."


Colombie, Etats-Unis - A Model Counterinsurgency: Uribe's Colombia (2002 - 2006) vs FARC
Thomas A. Marks.  Military Review 03-04/07

"Little is heard of U.s. involvement in counterinsurgency (CoiN) in Colombia. that which does appear is often inaccurate and ideologically skewed. Yet progress in america’s "number three war" has been significant and appears all the more impressive given the increasing difficulties experienced in iraq and afghanistan.

What is noteworthy is that the approach being used is "classic counterinsurgency." In this, there is considerable irony, because many of the significant aspects of the campaign were developed and implemented by american-educated leaders, assisted, both directly and indirectly, by americans. that the Colombians have improved upon the original foundation makes examination of the case all the more compelling and urgent..."


Colombie, Etats-Unis - The United States and Colombia: the Next Plan
Adam Isacson, openDemocracy 12/3/2007

"The United States could play a decisive new role in helping a crisis-ridden Colombia move toward being a modern democracy. In the wake of George W Bush's brief visit to Bogotá, Adam Isacson assesses the chances of a policy shift in Washington..."


Terrorisme, Irak - HUMINT-Centric Operations: Developing Actionable Intelligence in the Urban Counterinsurgency Environment
Ralph O. Baker. Military Review

"...My purpose in writing this article is to share with the reader insights and lessons learned from the reform of our intelligence operations; specifically, what we learned by conducting human intelligence (HUMINt)-centric operations in a heavy BCT in Iraq. To that end, I want to briefly describe the initial state of my BCt and our area of operations (aO), identify the major intelligence challenges that we faced, and offer solutions and techniques we adapted or developed in order to overcome our challenges..."


Terrorisme, Pakistan - Pakistan: Karachi’s Madrasas and Violent Extremism
International Crisis Group 29 March 2007

"More than five years after President Pervez Musharraf declared his intention to crack down on violent sectarian and jihadi groups and to regulate the network of madrasas (religious schools) on which they depend, his government’s reform program is in shambles. Banned sectarian and jihadi groups, supported by networks of mosques and madrasas, continue to operate openly in Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi, and elsewhere. The international community needs to press President Musharraf to fulfil his commitments, in particular to enforce genuine controls on the madrasas and allow free and fair national elections in 2007. It should also shift the focus of its donor aid from helping the government’s ineffectual efforts to reform the religious schools to improving the very weak public school sector.

Karachi’s madrasas, which have trained and dispatched jihadi fighters to Afghanistan and Indian-administered Kashmir, offer a valuable case study of government failures and consequences for internal stability and regional and international security. In 2006, the city was rocked by high-profile acts of political violence. In three separate attacks, suicide bombers killed a U.S. diplomat, assassinated the head of the most prominent Shia political group and wiped out the entire leadership of a Sunni militant group locked in a struggle for control over mosques with its Sunni rivals..."


Terrorisme, Pakistan - Pakistan and Terrorism: A Summary
K. Alan Kronstadt, Congressional Research Service 27/03/07

"This report provides a summary review of issues related to Pakistan and terrorism, especially in the context of U.S. interests, policy goals, and relevant assistance. The outcomes of U.S. policies toward Pakistan since 9/11, while not devoid of meaningful successes, have neither neutralized anti-Western militants and reduced religious extremism in that country, nor have they contributed sufficiently to the stabilization of neighboring Afghanistan. Many observers thus urge a broad re-evaluation of such policies..."


Terrorisme - National Strategy for Aviation Security
White House 26/03/07

"The security and economic prosperity of the United States depend significantly upon the secure operation of its aviation system and use of the world’s airspace by the Nation, its international partners, and legitimate commercial interests. Terrorists, criminals, and hostile nation-states have long viewed aviation as a target for attack and exploitation. The tragic events of September 11, 2001 and the Heathrow plot of August 2006 are telling reminders of the threats facing aviation and the intent and capabilities of adversaries that mean to do harm to the United States and its people..."


Contre-Espionnage - The National Counterintelligence Strategy of the United States of America 2007
Office of the US Director of National Intelligence

"The Strategy is designed to thwart intelligence threats directed against the US at home and abroad, according to Dr. Joel F. Brenner, NCIX and Mission Manager for Counterintelligence in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). It has the following major objectives:

• Secure the Nation Against Foreign Espionage and Electronic Penetration
• Protect the Integrity of the US Intelligence System
• Support National Policy and Decisions
• Protect US Economic Advantage, Trade Secrets and Know How
• Support US Armed Forces
• Manage the Counterintelligence Community to Achieve Efficient Coordination
• Improve Training and Education of the Counterintelligence Community
• Expand National Awareness of Counterintelligence Risk in the Private as well as Public Sector

Sécurité web - Web Security Trends Report (Q1 2007)
Finjan Inc. March 26, 2007

"Web Security Trends Report (Q1 2007) indicates that 80% of URLs containing malicious code are hosted in the United States; Advertising is leading category for malicious URLs..."