Semaine du 24/02 au 02/03/2007


Pakistan, Etats-Unis - U.S.-Pakistan Tensions Pressure Musharraf into Action
Dr. Federico Bordonaro, PINR 27/02/07

"...Pakistan will remain critical in the current year's geopolitical developments. If the Musharraf government fails to ensure a pro-Western course to remain in place in Islamabad, enormous consequences for South Asia, the U.S.-Islamist struggle, and the U.S.-China balance of power will ensue".


Lire également, Read also :

Cheney Presses Pakistan
CFR 27/02/07

Backgrounder : Pakistan's Tribal Areas
CFR November 9, 2006


Iran, Nucléaire - IAEA Report on Iran
UN 22/02/07

"The latest report from the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran, Implementation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons safeguards agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, has been released as a UN document, S/2007/100."


Irak, Royaume Uni - Blair’s “Mission Accomplished” Moment
Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 26, 2007

"Prime Minister Tony Blair recently announced that up to 1,600 of the 7,100 British troops in Iraq would start to withdraw this spring – a move that has triggered a number of questions on this side of the Atlantic about Blair's timing, motives, and the UK-U.S. relationship in general..."


Australie, Etats-Unis - The Other Special Relationship: The United States and Australia at the Start of the 21st Century
Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College, February 27, 2007

"This volume summarizes the major findings of the conference participants over the last year. Beyond the thematic resemblance between this volume and the previous study of U.S.-UK relations, another similarity is the importance of two events in determining London and Canberra’s relations with Washington. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11) represent the first turning point. The British and Australian governments reacted similarly to these attacks—immediately identifying 9/11 as a transformative moment in international relations. But the Australian Prime Minister’s presence in Washington, DC, during the 9/11 terrorist attacks intensified the personal impact of the events, and within a few days his government had invoked the ANZUS Treaty to offer its full support to the United States. The second “big event” dominating both U.S.-UK relations and U.S.-Australia relations has been America’s management of the Global War on Terror and, in particular, its leadership of the ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq..."


Liban, Syrie - Saudi-Iranian Mediation on Hizballah: Will a Lebanon Deal Come at Syria's Expense?
David Schenker, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, February 26, 2007

"On February 20, the Lebanese cabinet—with a Hizballah-led opposition boycott—extended the term of the UN commission investigating the February 2005 assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. While the commission’s work can now continue for as long as one more year, any future decision about organizing an international tribunal to try those indicted for the murder remains hostage to a vote—requiring the opposition’s assent—in the paralyzed Lebanese parliament. Meanwhile, Hizballah continues to press its demand for increased political power within a “national unity” government, threatening civil disobedience should its demands not be met..."


Drogues, Criminalité économique - 2007 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR)
Annual report by the Department of State to Congress

"The 2007 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) is an annual report by the Department of State to Congress prepared in accordance with the Foreign Assistance Act.  It describes the efforts of key countries to attack all aspects of the international drug trade in Calendar Year 2006. Volume I covers drug and chemical control activities.  Volume II covers money laundering and financial crimes..."


Terrorisme - DNI Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence for the Senate Armed Services Committee
DNI February 27, 2007

Opening Statement of the Director of National Intelligence

Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, January 11, 2007


Terrorisme - Exploring Terrorist Targeting Preferences
By: Martin C. Libicki, Peter Chalk, Melanie Sisson, RAND Corporation

"Al Qaeda, the jihadist network personified by Osama bin laden, seeks a restored caliphate free of Western influence. It uses terror as its means. But how does terrorism serve the ends of al Qaeda? Understanding its strategic logic might suggest what U.S. targets it may seek to strike and why..."


Terrorisme - The CBRN System: Assessing the threat of terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom
Chatham House 02/07

"A well-funded terrorist group, particularly one with a long-term vision of conflict and with the intention to inflict as much damage as possible upon unprotected populations, might be attracted to the most sophisticated chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, in spite of the associated technical challenges. Even if only a remote possibility, the effects of such an attack would be devastating and cannot be dismissed as too remote to contemplate. But for some terrorist groups, the threshold of success might be much lower. At this level, the most basic chemical, biological and radiological weapons, and possibly even Improvised Nuclear Devices, could all prove tempting. It is appropriate, therefore, to think of CBRN as a system, offering all that might be required for a range of terrorist groups from the largest to the smallest, from the almost casual to the most organized, and from the poorest to the best funded..."


Immigration, Etats-Unis - The Myth of Immigrant Criminality and the Paradox of Assimilation: Incarceration Rates Among Native and Foreign-Born Men
by Ruben G. Rumbaut, Ph.D, and Walter A. Ewing, Ph.D., Immigration Policy Center

"It is a myth that immigrants increase the amount of crime in the United States. Data from the U.S. census and other sources show that for every ethnic group — without exception — incarceration rates among young men are lowest for immigrants. This holds true especially for the Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans who make up the bulk of the undocumented immigrant population..."


Guerre asymétrique - The Israeli-Hezbollah War of 2006: The Media as a Weapon in Asymmetrical Conflict
By Marvin Kalb, Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government 28/02/2007

"Based on content analysis of global media and interviews with many diplomats and journalists, this paper describes the trajectory of the media from objective observer to fiery advocate, becoming in fact a weapon of modern warfare. The paper also shows how an open society, Israel, is victimized by its own openness and how a closed sect, Hezbollah, can retain almost total control of the daily message of journalism and propaganda..."


Information revolution - Navigating the Information Revolution: Choices for Laggard Countries
RAND Corporation

"The rapid diffusion of information and communication technologies has had a profound impact. But the so-called information revolution (IR) has been uneven, with some countries being far ahead and others far behind, resulting in the ‘digital divide.’ Lagging countries need the means to move ahead if they are to access the benefits that IR offers and not suffer the consequences of being left out. Policymakers in these countries need to understand the drivers of IR and how they vary across the various stages of IR. But they are hampered by the lack of specific studies that could provide specific tools to do so. This study identifies stages of IR, classifies countries according to their various stages, and using country-level data, identifies the drivers that are important across stages of IR. The overriding drivers at all stages seem to be levels of human capital, quality of governance and the extent of urbanization. This analysis unifies long-term adoption drivers with short-term diffusion drivers to develop a road map that points the way for lagging countries..."


Chine, Bourses - The Financial Domino Effect
CFR March 1, 2007

"It’s a truism to say the world’s economies are interconnected, but the aftermath of the February 27 Chinese stock market collapse was a blunt reminder of one of the darker aspects of an integrated world marketplace..."