26/05/06 - Enron : La connexion Bush

Enron: The Bush Connection
Democracy Now 26/05/06

"Enron founder Ken Lay and his family rank among President Bush’s biggest financial backers of his political career. The family donated about $140,000 to Bush’s political campaigns in Texas and for the White House. The president personally nicknamed Ken Lay 'Kenny Boy.' Our guest Greg Palast examined the connections between Enron and the Bush administration in his documentary “Bush Family Fortunes.”

We turn now to the connections between President Bush and Enron. Enron founder Ken Lay and his family rank among President Bush’s biggest financial backers of his political career. The family donated about $140,000 to Bush’s political campaigns in Texas and for the White House. The president personally nicknamed Ken Lay “Kenny Boy.” Overall Enron employees gave Bush some $600,000 in political donations. According to the Center for Public Integrity this made Enron Bush’s top career donor - a distinction the company maintained until 2004. Shortly after Bush took office in 2001, Vice President Cheney met with Enron officials while he was developing the administration’s energy policies. Our guest Greg Palast examined the connections between Enron and the Bush administration in his documentary “Bush Family Fortunes.”..."


Power Outage: An Enron Backgrounder from the Center for Public Integrity
Center for Public Integrity 26/05/06

"Former Enron Corp. executives Kenneth Lay and Jeffrey Skilling were found guilty Thursday on charges of conspiracy and fraud, more than four years after the demise of their high profile energy trading company shocked the corporate and political world. Enron founder Lay was convicted on all the charges against him, while former chief executive officer Skilling was convicted on 19 of the 28 counts.

As notorious as the Enron chiefs were for their clandestine business practices — practices that propelled one of the greatest corporate scandals in U.S. history — they were equally well-known for their patronage of George W. Bush's political career. From Bush's tenure as governor of Texas through his rise to the presidency, Enron offered its financial resources to Bush and often received what appeared to be legislative favors..."


26/05/06 - Les anglo-saxons à l'offensive sur EADS !

EADS gets Caught in Its own Tangled web
By Paul Betts, FT 25/05/06

"The problems of EADS, Europe's leading aeronautical group, are an object-lesson in the dangers facing a company when a government lacks a coherent industrial vision.

EADS, a European multinational but with 15 per cent held by the French government, is caught between classic French interventionism and the demands of the market, and between the competing interests of different government departments. It also has to negotiate an intricate relationship with its German and Spanish core shareholders..."

"...Since its conception, the EADS management structure has respected the political arrangements for control of the group whereby French and German executives, like the Hapsburg twin-headed eagle, share responsibility at the top.

This unwieldy structure has managed to work, albeit with difficulties, because national rivalries have been kept in check, and because the company appeared to have the right products while the aerospace market was buoyant.

But it has failed to react fast enough to develop the new generation of commercial aircraft that airline customers are now demanding, and as a result risks losing out to Boeing.

It has also been unsettled by another aspect of the French government's failure to push Thales, the French defence electronics company in which the state holds the single biggest stake, into a merger deal with EADS to give more muscle to the Franco-German group.

These shenanigans - coupled with the appearance of EADS senior French personnel at the centre of the Clearstream scandal shaking the Paris political establishment - can only make the Americans smile. It provides arguments for those in Washington who are hostile both to EADS and Airbus because of the subsidies row. Nor can it help EADS overcome the hostility of American politicians seeking to protect the US defence market from foreign penetration in areas of sensitive technology.

The French government must sort out its industrial policy and finally shed its stake in EADS, as the Germans have long been asking. The group must resolve how Lagardèreand DaimlerChrysler, its two core industrial shareholders, are going to offload large chunks of their stakes next year.

Management must be rationalised by creating a single chain of command under one chairman and one chief executivewhile respecting thegroup's Franco-German balance. And the group needs to address with greater transparency the different roles of civil aviation and defence.

It is a daunting list. But time is running short and the patience of the Germans is wearing thin, over what one prominent German official calls the indulgence of the French in "too many kindergarten games".


26/05/06 - Le futur des carburants automobiles

Options and Implications for Future Automotive Fuels
FAS Public Interest Winter 2005


26/05/06 - Situation stratégique globale : Vers le pire ?

Trouble spots threaten perfect storm of global crises - study
Guardian 25/05/06

"The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the west's growing confrontation with Iran, and efforts to divest North Korea of its nuclear weapons are all approaching crucial turning points that could combine to create a perfect storm of simultaneous international crises, independent defence experts said yesterday.

Launching the International Institute for Strategic Studies' (IISS) annual assessment of global security threats, John Chipman, its director general, said: "Many parts of the world are engaged in brutal combat ... Overall, the dangerous triptych of Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran continues to dominate the security agenda as do the wider, iconic problems of terrorism and proliferation."..."


No let-up predicted in war zones
Guardian 25/05/06

"The world faces "a very troubled security landscape" in 2006 with concerns about unresolved conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan compounded by growing worries about Iran's nuclear intentions, China's military expansion, reviving violence in south Asia and Sudan, and continuing weapons proliferation and terrorist activity, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said yesterday. Introducing its annual assessment of global instability, The Military Balance 2006, director general John Chipman said "many parts of the world are engaged in brutal combat" and warned that the year could prove to be a turning point on many fronts..."


Voir, See :

The Military Balance 2006
International Institute for Strategic Studies


26/05/06 - Géopolitique et politique de puissance de Gazprom

The Gazprom nation
By Pepe Escobar, Asia Times 26/05/06

"Whatever the results of the EU-Russia summit this Thursday in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, there seems to be one clear winner: the Gazprom nation - Russia.

With the United States - the European Union's No 1 trade partner and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally - mired in the Iraq quagmire and the EU with an ongoing constitutional crisis, Russia is exceptionally positioned to have its way in the negotiations leading to the post-2007 "Strategic Partnership Treaty" between the EU and Russia..."


26/05/06 - Débats internes à Washington sur des négociations avec l'Iran

U.S. Is Debating Talks With Iran on Nuclear Issue
NYT 26/05/06

"The Bush administration is beginning to debate whether to set aside a longstanding policy taboo and open direct talks with Iran, to help avert a crisis over Tehran's suspected nuclear weapons program, European officials and Americans close to the administration said Friday.

European officials who have been in contact with the administration in recent weeks said the discussion was heating up, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice worked with European foreign ministers to persuade Iran to suspend its efforts to enrich uranium.

European leaders make no secret of their desire for the United States to join in the talks with Iran, if only to show that the Americans have gone the extra mile to avoid a confrontation that could spiral into a fight over sanctions or even military action.

But since the Iranian revolution of 1979 and the crisis over the seizure of American hostages in November that year, the United States has avoided direct talks with Iran. There were sporadic contacts during the war in Afghanistan, in the early stages of the Iraq war and in the days after the earthquake in Bam, Iran, at the end of 2003.

European officials say Ms. Rice has begun discussing the issue with top aides at the State Department. Her belief, they say, is that ultimately the matter will have to be addressed by the administration's national security officials, whether talks with Iran remain at an impasse or even if there is some progress.

But others who know her well say she is resisting on the ground that signaling a willingness to talk would show weakness and disrupt the delicate negotiations with Europe. Ms. Rice is also said to fear that the administration might end up making too many concessions to Iran.

Administration officials said President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld have opposed direct talks, even through informal back channels. As a result, many European officials say they doubt that a decision to talk is likely soon.

The prospect of direct talks between the United States and Iran is so politically delicate within the Bush administration that the officials who described the emerging debate would discuss it only after being granted anonymity..."


Washington 'hawks' oppose EU3 plan for Iran
The Financial Times 23/05/06

"Opposition by US "hawks" led by Dick Cheney, the vice-president, is complicating efforts by the main European powers to put together an agreed package of incentives aimed at persuading Iran to suspend its nuclear fuel cycle programme, according to diplomats and analysts in Washington.

London is hosting on Wednesday political directors of the "EU3" of France, Germany and the UK, together with China, Russia and the US to look at the twin tools of incentives and sanctions.

Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, was said by one diplomat to have "gone out on a limb" in an attempt to back the EU3's package of incentives but was facing resistance from Mr Cheney who is playing a more visible role in US foreign policy. Another diplomat said US internal divisions were holding up an agreement with the Europeans.

Some European diplomats believe that Washington will back the package - which includes guarantees for the construction of light-water reactors in Iran, promises of nuclear fuel and a new regional security forum - if Moscow endorses a tough chapter seven United Nations Security Council resolution that would require Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.

US officials would not comment on Washington's internal debate. However, one official said the EU3 had only presented certain elements of the proposed package to the US, including the sale of a light-water nuclear reactor. The US did not respond, he added.

Ms Rice has denied reports that the EU3 asked the US to provide security assurances to Iran. Accusing Iran of being the "central banker of terrorism", she made clear that such assurances were "not on the table".

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, has already rejected what the EU3 is reported to be offering. Diplomats are doubtful Iran will accept a deal that does not allow it to continue at least small-scale uranium enrichment. The US and EU3 have ruled that out.

Mr Cheney is said to oppose the notion of "rewarding bad behaviour" following Iran's alleged breaches of its nuclear safeguards commitments. The hawks - who include John Bolton, the US envoy to the UN, and Bob Joseph, a senior arms control official - fear a repeat of a similar agreement reached with North Korea in 1994 which did not stop the communist regime from pursuing a secret weapons programme.

Ministers are still bruised from angry exchanges between Ms Rice and Sergei Lavrov in New York two weeks ago when the Russian foreign minister attacked US policy and condemned a tough speech directed at Moscow by Mr Cheney.

Margaret Beckett, the newly appointed UK foreign secretary, leaped to the defence of Nicholas Burns - the number three in the State Department - when Mr Lavrov targeted him, according to a western diplomat. Ministers should not attack civil servants, Ms Beckett is said to have responded.


24/05/06 - Quid de l'Irak en cas d'attaque sur l'Iran ?

Iran's Iraq Strategy
WaPo 21/05/06

"From the moment the first U.S. warheads detonate over an Iranian nuclear installation, the United States will be at war with the Islamic Republic. A vast tableau of American facilities around the world -- as well as the streets of U.S. cities -- could be targets for retaliation by Iran's agents and surrogates. "The Americans should know that if they assault Iran, their interests will be harmed anywhere in the world that is possible," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, warned last month.

The most likely theater of operations in the initial stages of a U.S.-Iranian conflict, however, would be next door -- in Iraq. Since the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime, Iran has methodically built and strengthened its military, political and religious influence in Iraq. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has extensively infiltrated Iraq's Ministry of the Interior and police force, both mainstays of Shiite power. The hundreds of Iranian mullahs and businessmen who have slipped across the border have a commanding presence in southern Iraq's commercial and religious sectors..."


Inside Iraq's hidden war
Guardian 20/05/06

"...The logic of Adel The Patriot's new sectarian struggle against the Shia is driving him and his fellow Sunnis into radical new directions. Asked what will save the Sunnis, he replies almost instinctively.

"Our only hope is if the Americans hit the Iranians, and by God's will this day will come very soon, then the Americans will give a medal to anyone who kills a Shia militiaman. When we feel that an American attack on Iran is imminent, I myself will shoot anyone who attacks the Americans and all the mujahideen will join the US army against the Iranians..."


24/05/06 - Les Etats-Unis ont-ils vraiment l'intention de quitter l'Irak ?

Analysis: troop withdrawal - the US and British problems
The Times 22/05/06

"..."Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Ambassador in Iraq, said at the weekend that the formation of the Government will allow for the Americans to start a gradual withdrawal of troops. But in Washington last week Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, declined to give any firm timetables. Likewise Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, said yesterday that she couldn't talk about a timetable for withdrawal..."


Cut and Run? You Bet
Foreign Policy 05/06

"Withdraw immediately or stay the present course? That is the key question about the war in Iraq today. American public opinion is now decidedly against the war. From liberal New England, where citizens pass town-hall resolutions calling for withdrawal, to the conservative South and West, where more than half of “red state” citizens oppose the war, Americans want out. That sentiment is understandable..."


24/05/06 - Un Etat irakien en échec, un gouvernement inachevé et une nation en voie de désintégration

Critique of US Policy in Iraq
Juan Cole 24/05/06

"Bush Administration policies in Iraq have largely been a failure. It has created a failed state in that country, which is in flames and seething with new religious and ethnic nationalist passions of a sort never before seen on this scale in modern Iraqi history. The severe instability in Iraq threatens the peace and security of the entire region, and could easily ignite a regional guerrilla war that might well affect petroleum exports from the Oil Gulf and hence the health of the world economy..."


Iraq faces clash with Kurds over oil deals
FT 23/05/06

"IIraq's newly appointed oil minister said on Tuesday that the central government should handle all contracts related to petroleum exploration and production, putting him on a potential collision course with the autonomous Kurdish region which has recently begun to develop its own oil resources..."


Iraqi Premier, Cabinet Sworn In
WaPo 21/05/06

"Iraq's first constitutional government since the fall of Saddam Hussein took office in a televised ceremony Saturday, with unfilled cabinet posts and last-minute sectarian bickering underlining the difficulties it will face in bringing peace and order to the country..."


Iraqis Form Government, With Crucial Posts Vacant
NYT 21/05/06

"Iraqi leaders on Saturday approved a full-term government here for the first time since the fall of Saddam Hussein more than three years ago, but one that appeared to lack the cohesion needed to quell the sectarian and guerrilla violence engulfing the country..."


The fantasy is over, we must partition Iraq and get out now
The Times 21/05/06

"...This weekend another Iraqi government, the third in three years, entered office under American guns in Baghdad’s green zone. Ibrahim al-Jaafari gives way to Nouri al-Maliki, though neither the defence nor internal security posts are filled. These are posts that matter, with their murky unofficial links to police, militias and Baghdad death squads.

The reason they are unfilled is that post-withdrawal Iraq is already up and running. Power has seeped away from the coalition and its still puppet ministers. It has moved out onto the streets of Baghdad and Basra — and into the morgues.

The jungle drums can read the signs. The British are back in helmets and tanks in the south, the Americans are back bombing and strafing villages in the west. The coalition has lost any ability to guarantee security to the Iraqi people, who must look elsewhere. In Iraq, optimism may always be a virtue but it has become fantasy..."


AP Interviews Envoy to Iraq
WaPo 21/05/06

"Transcript of U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad's interview Sunday with The Associated Press.."


Why Iraqis Aren't Cheering Their New Government
Time 20/05/06

"U.S. officials are spinning the formation of Iraq's new government as a triumph of democracy and the first step toward stabilizing the civil war-ravaged country. But Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet, sworn in Saturday after five months of bickering and brinkmanship has been greeted with a mixture of incredulity and skepticism by many Iraqis. "All that time spent in negotiations, and they couldn't fill the most important positions," says schoolteacher Salah Ubeidi, referring to three security-related posts that have been left vacant for now. "Why should we trust them to make the important decisions that need to be made?"..."


Iraq is disintegrating as ethnic cleansing takes hold
Independant 20/05/06

"Across central Iraq, there is an exodus of people fleeing for their lives as sectarian assassins and death squads hunt them down. At ground level, Iraq is disintegrating as ethnic cleansing takes hold on a massive scale..."


Can a new government rescue Iraq?
BBC 23/04/06

"More than four months after general elections for the country's first full-term parliament since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iraq at last has a new prime minister designate, Jawad al-Maliki..."


24/05/06 - Paniques sur l'Afghanistan

Russia to Supply Ammunition to Afghanistan at U.S. Request — Report
MosNews 22/05/06

"U.S. defense officials have secretly requested a “prodigious quantity” of ammunition from Russia to supply the Afghan army in case a Democrat president takes over in Washington and pulls out American troops. Pentagon chiefs have asked arms suppliers for a quote on a vast amount of ordnance, including more than 78 million rounds of AK47 (the well-known Kalashnikov submachine gun) ammunition, 100,000 rocket-propelled grenades and 12,000 tank shells — equivalent to about 15 times the British Army’s annual requirements, The Daily Telegraph reported Monday..."


US sets up £215m deal for Afghan arms - from Russia
Telegraph 22/05/06

"American defence officials have secretly requested a "prodigious quantity" of ammunition from Russia to supply the Afghan army in case a Democrat president takes over in Washington and pulls out US troops.

The Daily Telegraph can disclose that Pentagon chiefs have asked arms suppliers for a quote on a vast amount of ordnance, including more than 78 million rounds of AK47 ammunition, 100,000 rocket-propelled grenades and 12,000 tank shells - equivalent to about 15 times the British Army's annual requirements.

The Bush administration is said to want the deal because of worries that the next president could be a Democrat, possibly Hillary Clinton, who may abandon Afghanistan..."


23/05/06 - Crise structurelle, scénarios pour une Europe-puissance

Integrationism, interests and power in a troubled European Union(II) : The Eastern Challenge (pdf)

An interview with Federico Bordonaro, Europe Editor, Senior Analyst with the Power and Interest News Report, by Stefan Bocioaca, ia-Forum April 2006

"...So in my view, the present context can produce two likely scenarios. The first one, which is a bit depressing, is a long period when the attempts to produce a federal, supranational Europe will continue (along with further enlargements), while stumbling upon the harsh realities of national histories and economic interests. The second one, which could gain strength in the near future, is to re-think the whole European enterprise on the basis of inter-governmental policies predicated upon shared interests and focused on specific regional issues. This "variable geometry" Europe would accept the reality of national sovereignty while opening the way to enhanced cooperation wherever possible. For the moment, only “some” neo-gaullists in France appear ready to embrace such a view. But there are chances that such a pragmatic vision will gain supporters in the next 4-5 years..."


23/05/06 - Pétrodollar, Petroeuro, hégémonie américaine et conflit global

Iraq, Iran and the end of petrodollar: The waning influence of the USA in the Asian century
Pravda 15/05/06

Petrodollar became the essential basis for the US economic hegemony in the 1970s
Pravda 16/05/06


Lire également, Read also :

Petrodolar sau Petroeuro? O noua sursa de conflict global
Cóilín Nunan, Globalizarea.com


23/05/06 - Opération de désinformation caractérisée des néocons sur l'Iran

Iran Target of Apparent Disinformation Ploy
Jim Lobe, IPS 22/05/06

"A story authored by a prominent U.S. neo-conservative regarding new legislation in Iran allegedly requiring Jews and other religious minorities to wear distinctive colour badges circulated around the world this weekend before it was exposed as false.

The article by a frequent contributor to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian-American Amir Taheri, was initially published in Friday's edition of Canada's National Post, which ran alongside the story a 1935 photograph of a Jewish businessman in Berlin with a yellow, six-pointed star sewn on his overcoat, as required by Nazi legislation at the time. The Post subsequently issued a retraction.

Taheri's story, however, was reprinted by the New York Post, which is owned by media baron Rupert Murdoch, and picked up by the Jerusalem Post, which also featured a photo of a yellow star from the Nazi era over a photo of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Another neo-conservative publication, the New York Sun, also noted the story Monday, claiming that the specific report that special badges were required by the legislation had been "incorrect". At the same time, however, the Sun quoted two Iranian-American foes of the Islamic Republic as suggesting that dress requirements for religious minorities were still being considered by Iran's ruling circles. It offered no evidence to support that assertion.

The story, which was also noted in the Australian press, comes at a moment of rising tensions between Iran and both Israel and the United States over Tehran's nuclear programme which, according to the latter two, is designed to produce nuclear weapons. Both the U.S. and Israel have suggested that they may take military action against nuclear-related targets in Iran unless ongoing diplomatic efforts to freeze Tehran's programme bears fruit.

Juan Cole, president of the U.S. Middle East Studies Association (MESA), described the Taheri article and its appearance first in Canada's Post as "typical of black psychological operations campaigns", particularly in its origin in an "out of the way newspaper that is then picked up by the mainstream press" -- in this case, the Jerusalem Post and the New York Post. A former U.S. intelligence official described the article's relatively obscure provenance as a "real sign of (a) disinformation operation".

Taheri's original article, entitled "A Colour Code for Iran's 'Infidels'", dealt primarily with new legislation that it said was designed to ensure that Iranians wear "standard Islamic garments" that removed ethnic and class distinctions and that eliminated "the influence of the infidel" -- presumably meaning the West -- "on the way Iranians, especially, the young dress".

But it also noted in passing that it would "envisage" separate dress codes for religious minorities -- Christians, Jews, and Zoroastrians -- who will be required to adopt distinct colour schemes to make them identifiable in public "so that (Muslims) can avoid shaking hands with them by mistake, and thus (become) najis (unclean)"..."


The Black Psy-Ops Campaign against Iran
Juan Cole 23/05/06

"The Iranian regime is despicable in its lack of respect for basic human rights and in its regimentation of its citizens into a rigid theocracy. But it is no more of a threat to the United States than Burma or the Congo, both of which are just as oppressive. Iran has a very weak military and just isn't a serious threat to any other country. Its values are not US values. But if we are going to do things like send Marines into Iran to force Iranian women to wear bikinis at the beach, we are going to have a very busy century and Arlington Cemetery is going to run out of room..."


Iran denies ‘mischievous’ allegations on Jews
FT 21/05/06

"Iranian officials and politicians have strongly condemned a Canadian newspaper report alleging that Iran had passed a law requiring Jews to wear yellow badges on their clothes.

The story also claimed Christians and Zoroastrians, the two other main religious minorities in mainly Muslim Iran, would have to wear badges identifying themselves.

“When I heard this, I immediately felt it was a mischievous act, a fresh means of pressure against the Iranian government,” Maurice Motammed, the Jews’ deputy in the Iranian parliament, told the FT on Sunday. “We representatives for religious minorities are active in the parliament, and there has never been any mention of such a thing.”..."


Voir, See :

A COLOUR CODE FOR IRAN'S 'INFIDELS'
by Amir Taheri, National Post May 19, 2006


23/05/06 - Idéaux néocons vs nécessités

Neo-con ideals lose out to practical necessities
The Financial Times 21/05/06

"Much debate in media and academic circles has focused on whether the US neo-conservative school any longer holds sway in Washington. Two strong clues were supplied last week: the US administration concluded its first free trade agreement with Vietnam while also backing Hanoi’s aspirations to join the World Trade Organisation; and Washington restored full relations with Tripoli, bringing to an end Libya’s long diplomatic isolation.

Of course, both were discrete events that followed their own logic. It is more than 30 years since the US beat its retreat from Vietnam and 20 years since Hanoi embarked on doi moi – its version of economic liberalisation. It is precisely 20 years since Washington ordered air strikes on Tripoli, and Ronald Reagan described Colonel Muammer Gadaffi as a "mad dog". And it is 18 years since Libyan terrorists blew up the Pan Am flight over Lockerbie.

The passage of time has reconciled the world’s only superpower to the desirability of rehabilitating two key rogue states of the last generation. So it is unsurprising that last week’s graduation ceremonies were of only passing significance in Washington’s geopolitical whirl. Yet they deserve to be interpreted in a bolder light.

Neo-conservatism has many tenets, some of which are disputed. But its core principle is a rejection of the realist school of foreign policy that deals with regimes as they are. According to the neo-cons, a regime’s outward behaviour is dictated by its internal character. The goal of foreign policy should be to transform – rather than accommodate – regimes that do not share America’s freedom-loving goals.

Last week’s deals with Libya and Vietnam do not meet that basic criterion since all that has changed is their outward behaviour – Vietnam wants to engage in more trade and investment and Libya is co-operating in counter-terrorism. Both countries, like Iran and North Korea, remain dictatorships. Indeed both countries continue to be governed by the same regimes that originally turned them into pariahs – in Libya’s case the same person. Neither shows any sign, rhetorical or otherwise, of embracing liberal democracy.

So what, some may ask? Even at the height of neo-conservative influence, when Paul Wolfowitz was deputy to Donald Rumsfeld at the Pentagon and John Bolton was at the US state department, George W. Bush’s first administration was befriending unsavoury characters in various trouble-spots on grounds of realpolitik. The neo-cons’ influence has always been exaggerated.

That is partly true. Mr Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, US vice-president, have always been driven by their hard-nosed reading of American interests rather than the lofty, neo-conservative ideals of universal democracy. But the latter held rhetorical sway over the first Bush administration, and that often found its way into policy. Their influence has now been downgraded.

The difference can be seen in Mr Bush’s first National Security Strategy, published in 2002, which promised an aggressive campaign of democratisation (as well as the controversial doctrine of military pre-emption). In the second NSS document, issued two months ago, democracy promotion was just one among a number of competing foreign policy goals. Without quite admitting to it, the Bush administration implicitly concedes that the rapid democratisation of Iraq has created more problems than it has solved.

Yet the battle between realists and idealists is not fully played out – and America being America, it never will be. Outside the administration the two are being synthesised into mushy amalgams, such as "realistic Wilsonianism". Within it, however, there is an unresolved debate over whether to negotiate directly with Iran on its nuclear programme or to give priority to removing Tehran’s mullahs.

On this, the Bush administration has been sending conflicting signals: last week Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, backed the diplomatic efforts of America’s three main European partners. The previous month, Mr Bolton, now US ambassador to the United Nations, shot down the same proposal. That tussle will probably continue.

Iran, meanwhile, which has better claims to being a democracy than either Libya or Vietnam, can reflect on one thing: you can be a pariah in US eyes, you can even get the better of it in conflict. But when, as they probably will, America’s priorities change, it may, on pragmatic grounds, happily welcome you back into the fold – even if you have nuclear weapons. Just ask Pakistan."


23/05/06 - Une guerre civile palestinienne ?

Gunfight erupts between Hamas and Fatah forces in Gaza
Haaretz 19/05/06

"...A key area of dispute between Abbas' Fatah movement and Hamas is control over the security forces. Three of the six security branches report to the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry, but Abbas has placed one of his loyalists in a commanding position of the most important of the three branches.

The new Hamas unit, called the "Security Forces Support System," is an attempt to grant an aura of formal authority to ongoing operations that have until now been carried out by Hamas's military wing and other armed groups including the Popular Resistance Committees..."


Hamas puts 3,000-strong private army on streets of Gaza
Guardian 18/05/06

"Hamas deployed a private army of about 3,000 armed men on the streets of the Gaza Strip yesterday in a challenge to the authority of the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas.

The Islamist group said the force would restore order amid growing security chaos but some Palestinian leaders feared that it would add to the unrest since much of the violence has been caused by rivalries between Hamas and Mr Abbas's Fatah movement..."


The Growing Anarchy in the Palestinian Territories
Washington Institute for Near East Studies 16/05/06

"During the early morning hours of May 7, militants from Hamas and Fatah engaged in a bloody clash near Khan Yunis in Gaza that left three fighters dead. Reporting on this incident -- one of the deadliest intra-Palestinian confrontations in recent history -- indicates that Hamas activists responded to the assassination of one of their members by launching a shoulder-fired missile at a truck belonging to the Fatah-dominated Preventive Security Service and killing two of its passengers. Despite calls for a truce by representatives from all Palestinian factions, ten people were wounded the following day when the home of Fatah leader Samir Mashharawi was attacked, allegedly in response to multiple kidnappings of Hamas members.

The escalating violence in the Palestinian territories represents a growing trend toward anarchy and civil unrest since the election of Hamas in late January. Should Hamas prove incapable of easing the financial crisis or improving law and order -- a fundamental component of its campaign -- the very survival of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a relevant body may be threatened..."


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