Semaine du 17 au 23/12/2006


Intelligence économique - Intelligence économique défensive : la physionomie nationale du risque financier
Direction Centrale des Renseignements Généraux 21/11/06

"Depuis le 1er janvier 2006, les renseignements généraux ont recensé 1.578 cas de vulnérabilités ou d’agressions économiques hostiles, concernant 888 entreprises (sur plus de 2.000 sensibilisées).

La surface statistique ainsi offerte à l’analyse permet aujourd’hui d’isoler et d’examiner, par natures de risques, les contours de la physionomie nationale de l’insécurité économique..."


Terrorisme - Analyzing terror campaigns on the internet: Technical sophistication, content richness, and Web interactivity
International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, Volume 65, Issue 1 , 01/2007

"Terrorists and extremists are increasingly utilizing Internet technology to enhance their ability to influence the outside world. Due to the lack of multi-lingual and multimedia terrorist/extremist collections and advanced analytical methodologies, our empirical understanding of their Internet usage is still very limited. To address this research gap, we explore an integrated approach for identifying and collecting terrorist/extremist Web contents. We also propose a Dark Web Attribute System (DWAS) to enable quantitative Dark Web content analysis from three perspectives: technical sophistication, content richness, and Web interactivity..."


Terrorisme - Effective Counterterrorism and the Limited Role of Predictive Data Mining
Cato Institute, Policy Analysis no. 584 December 11, 2006

“...Though data mining has many valuable uses, it is not well suited to the terrorist discovery problem. It would be unfortunate if data mining for terrorism discovery had currency within national security, law enforcement, and technology circles because pursuing this use of data mining would waste taxpayer dollars, needlessly infringe on privacy and civil liberties, and misdirect the valuable time and energy of the men and women in the national security community...”


Espace - Space Operations: Air Force Doctrine Document 2-2, 27 November 2006
U.S. Air Force (via Federation of American Scientists)

"This version updates Air Force space doctrine based on recent operational experience. The chapter on command and control defines space coordinating authority (page 13), discusses the joint force air and space component commander’s role as the supported commander for counterspace operations (page 15), and includes the position of director of space forces (page 16). The planning chapter describes space integration considerations for planners based on observations during recent military operations (page 21). The execution chapter expands discussion of the space air and space operations center, which now operates as the joint space operations center (page 29). Finally, the development of the space professionals chapter updates the discussion of exercises, wargames, red teaming and experiments..."


Liban - Lebanon at a Tripwire
International Crisis Group, Middle East Briefing N°20 21 December 2006

"Lebanon has badly lost its balance and is at risk of new collapse, moving ever closer to explosive Sunni-Shiite polarisation with a divided, debilitated Christian community in between. The fragile political and sectarian equilibrium established since the end of its bloody civil war in 1990 was never a panacea and came at heavy cost. It depended on Western and Israeli acquiescence in Syria’s tutelage and a domestic system that hindered urgently needed internal reforms, and change was long overdue. But the upsetting of the old equilibrium, due in no small part to a tug-of-war by outsiders over its future, has been chaotic and deeply divisive, pitting one half of the country against the other. Both Lebanon’s own politicians and outside players need to recognise the enormous risks of a zero-sum struggle and seek compromises before it is too late..."


Arabie Saoudite, Iran, Irak - Saudis report Shi'ite 'state' inside of Iraq
By Sharon Behn, THE WASHINGTON TIMES December 18, 2006

"Iran has effectively created a Shi'ite "state within a state" in neighboring Iraq, defying both Iraqi Sunnis and neighboring Sunni nations, according to a Saudi security report..."


Lire également, Read also :

Saudis give a grim 'what if' should U.S. opt to leave Iraq
IHT 13/12/06


Irak - After Baker-Hamilton: What to Do in Iraq
International Crisis Group, Middle East Report N°60 19 December 2006

"Slowly, incrementally, the realisation that a new strategy is needed for Iraq finally is dawning on U.S. policy-makers. It was about time. By underscoring the U.S. intervention’s disastrous political, security, and economic balance sheet, and by highlighting the need for both a new regional and Iraqi strategy, the Baker-Hamilton report represents an important and refreshing moment in the country’s domestic debate. Many of its key – and controversial – recommendations should be wholly supported, including engaging Iran and Syria, revitalising the Arab-Israeli peace process, reintegrating Baathists, instituting a far-reaching amnesty, delaying the Kirkuk referendum, negotiating the withdrawal of U.S. forces with Iraqis and engaging all parties in Iraq..."


Irak - Report to Congress: Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq
U.S. Department of Defense, 11/2006

"In the past three months, the total number of attacks increased 22%. Some of this increase is attributable to a seasonal spike in violence during Ramadan. Coalition forces remained the target of the majority of attacks (68%), but the overwhelming majority of casualties were suffered by Iraqis. Total civilian casualties increased by 2% over the previous reporting period. Fifty-four percent of all attacks occurred in only 2 of Iraq’s 18 provinces (Baghdad and Anbar). Violence in Iraq was divided along ethnic, religious, and tribal lines, and political factions within these groups, and was often localized to specific communities. Outside of the Sunni Triangle, more than 90% of Iraqis reported feeling very safe in their neighborhoods. Still, concern regarding civil war ran high among the Iraqi populace..."


Irak - US military's classification of Baghdad's ethno-sectarian divide

Lire, Read :

How violence is forging a brutal divide in Baghdad
The Times 14/12/06

"Baghdad is like a jungle, the grey-bearded Shia militia leader said. “It is a savage place where the wild animals fight for their piece of territory. Each animal wants to take more land than the other.”..."


Irak, Reconstruction - Development Assistance Database IRAQ

"The main objectives of the DAD is to serve as a reliable and credible source of information on overall donor contributions to Iraq’s reconstruction, economic recovery and socio-economic development, as well as to support the Government in effectively managing development assistance and promoting the accountable and transparent use of resources. We believe that the level of completeness, accuracy and ultimately the reliability of the information contained in the DAD depend on each donor’s timely and complete contributions of data..."


ONU - Database of Declarations and Conventions contained in General Assembly Resolutions

"This database contains links to declarations, conventions and other instruments (see definition of terms), the text of which appear in resolutions of the General Assembly or their annexes. Instruments that have not been submitted for adoption by the General Assembly, i.e. Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, are not included..."


Afghanistan - Cordesman on the military situation in Afghanistan

"Anthony Cordesman, who holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS, briefed the media on Wednesday, December 13 at CSIS on the current military situation in Afghanistan. The briefing was based on data Cordesman collected on a recent trip to the country. Dr. Cordesman’s analysis also appeared in an op-ed in yesterday’s New York Times entitled, “One War We Can Still Win.”..."


Europe, Droits de l'homme - Muslims in the European Union: Discrimination and Islamophobia
European Monitoring Centre on Racism and Xenophobia

"“The report ‘Muslims in the European Union: Discrimination and Islamophobia’, presents available data on discrimination affecting Muslims in employment, education and housing. Manifestations of Islamophobia range from verbal threats through to physical attacks on people and property. The report stresses that the extent and nature of discrimination and Islamophobic incidents against European Muslims remain under-documented and under-reported. The EUMC report recommends therefore that Member States improve the reporting of incidents and implement measures to counter discrimination and racism more effectively. The report also includes initiatives and proposals for policy action by EU Member State governments and the European institutions to combat Islamophobia and to foster integration..."


Terrorisme - Selected Papers From the United States Government Counterinsurgency Conference
(September 28-29, 2006; U.S. Department of Defense/U.S. Department of State Conference)

The American Counterinsurgency Tradition — Eliot Cohen, Ph.D., Johns Hopkins/SAIS (PDF; 175 KB)
Three Pillars of Counterinsurgency — Dr. David Kilcullen, Senior Strategist, Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, U.S. Department of State (PDF; 296 KB)
Best Practices in Counterinsurgency — Dr. Kalev Sepp, Naval Postgraduate School (PDF; 65 KB)
Counterinsurgency In the 21st Century — LTG Sir John Kiszely, Director, UK Defence Academy (PDF; 69 KB)

Related Documents (PDFs):
Counterinsurgency Redux (Kilcullen; 805 KB)
Principles, Imperatives, and Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency — Eliot Cohen; Lieutenant Colonel Conrad Crane, U.S. Army, Retired; Lieutenant Colonel Jan Horvath, U.S. Army; and Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, U.S. Army (513 KB)
Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 21st Century: Reconceptualizing Threat and Response — Steven Metz and Raymond Millin, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College (PDF; 292 KB)
The Human Terrain System: A CORDS for the 21st Century — Jacob Kipp, Ph.D.; Lester Grau; Karl Prinslow; and Captain Don Smith (6.5 MB)
The Sociology and Psychology of Terrorism: Who Becomes A Terrorist And Why — classic 1999 report prepared by the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress (1.4 MB)


Terrorisme - Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting Al-Qa’ida’s Organizational Vulnerabilities
Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point, 14 February 2006

"The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point is pleased to present this report, “Harmony and Disharmony: Exploiting Al-Qa’ida’s Organizational Vulnerabilities.”  Based on a collection of al-Qa’ida documents that have recently been released from the Department of Defense’s Harmony Database, this report provides an analysis of al-Qa’ida’s organizational vulnerabilities. These documents, captured in the course of operations supporting the GWOT, have never before been made available to the academic and policy community.  “Harmony and Disharmony” includes a theoretically informed analysis of potential opportunities to exploit al-Qa’ida’s network vulnerabilities, a case study of jihadi operational failure, and specific recommendations for effectively addressing the evolving al-Qa’ida threat.  We have provided brief summaries of each of the released documents, and the full texts of the released documents can be accessed via hyperlinks within the report, both in their original Arabic and in English. We hope that this report will provide a useful resource in our collective efforts to better understand and combat al-Qa’ida and its affiliated movements..."


Voir aussi, See also :

The Militant Ideology Atlas
Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point


Terrorisme - U.S.-Russian Collaboration in Combating Radiological Terrorism
Committee on Opportunities for U.S.-Russian Collaboration in Combating Radiological Terrorism, Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, National Research Council 2006