23/04/06 - Négociations secrètes USA-Iran à Washington ?

Iranian official's presence in U.S. raises entry queries
Washington Times 19/04/06

"The Bush administration yesterday was at a loss to explain the rare presence in Washington of an Iranian government official who slipped into the United States under mysterious circumstances, apparently to attend a scholarly conference.

The State Department said that Mohammad Nahavandian, an economics and technology aide to Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, "is not here for meetings with U.S. government officials."

However, former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said yesterday Mr. Nahavandian had received "an invitation to participate in a conference in America, being organized by U.S. scholars."

 "I heard reports that he held official talks in Washington but Iran has denied such reports," he said at a press conference in Kuwait but did not elaborate.

Homeland Security Department spokesman Russ Knocke said last night: "We are aware of the case and continue to look thoroughly into it"

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack could not explain how Mr. Nahavandian entered the country, saying only, "We have no record of issuing a visa to a person with this name."

"There are two other ways" for a foreigner to enter the United States without a visa, Mr. McCormack said. "One is to be a legal permanent resident and have a green card. The other way is to have a passport from a visa-waiver program country."..."

"...A visit by a fairly senior Iranian official in Washington is very uncommon, given that the two countries have not had diplomatic relations since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 444-day hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

Iranian diplomats are accredited to the United Nations in New York, but their movements are limited to a 25-mile radius around the city...."


23/04/06 - Bras de fer USA vs Russie-Chine-Inde-Pakistan sur l'Iran

Russian split with US on Iran widens
Daily Star 23/04/06

"Anxious to be treated as a major world power, Russia now faces a stark cost-benefit dilemma as it weighs consequences of a widening split with the United States over how to confront Iran's nuclear ambition, analysts say..."


Russia must freeze arms deals with Iran: US
Reuters 23/04/06

"Russia must stop any arms deals with Iran and other nations must bar the sale of dual-use technologies to Tehran to put pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear programme, a senior US official said on Friday..."


U.S. Wants Russia to Stop Iran Arms Sales
AP 22/04/06

"Lacking assurances from Russia and China that they would approve of U.N. sanctions, the Bush administration is trying to deny Iran technology, assets and especially weapons to slow down a suspected nuclear weapons program.

As part of that campaign, a top State Department official urged Russia on Friday to drop its plan to sell Tor anti-aircraft missiles to Iran..."


Iran-India gas link deal close despite US ire
Reuters 22/04/06

"Iran, India and Pakistan are close to signing a gas pipeline deal, the Iranian and Pakistani oil ministers told Reuters on Saturday, defying U.S. opposition to the project..."


Russia toughens opposition to Iran sanctions
Reuters 21/04/06

"Hardening its opposition to sanctions against Iran, Russia said on Friday the U.N. Security Council should only consider such measures if it had proof the Islamic Republic was trying to build nuclear weapons..."


Russia backs Iran's nuclear programme
Times 21/04/06

"Russia today offered its most outspoken support yet of the controversial nuclear programme in Iran, its neighbour and trading partner.

"Our advice to our Iranian colleagues and friends is to complete work with the International Atomic Energy Authority and to calmly continue its nuclear energy programme... and on this path we are ready to provide assistance to Iran," Sergei Kislyak, the Deputy Foreign Minister, told a security conference in Moscow.

"The search for a solution must follow the route of diplomacy, and our position is that the instrument for resolving this problem, as before, must remain the IAEA, as we don’t have another international agency that has such authority and competence in the non-proliferation area."..."


Russia remains opposed to Iran sanctions
ISN 21/04/06

"Russian officials reiterated their country's opposition on Friday to the imposition of sanctions on Iran over its controversial nuclear program.

The Itar-Tass news agency quoted the Russian Foreign Ministry's official spokesperson, Mikhail Kamynin, as saying, "We will only be able to talk about sanctions after we have concrete facts confirming that Iran is not exclusively involved in peaceful nuclear activities."..."


Envoys Remain Split On Plan Against Iran
Washington Post 20/04/06

"Senior diplomats from the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members ended two days of talks about Iran's nuclear program Wednesday with consensus for action against the Islamic state, but they continued to be divided as to what form it should take, U.S. Undersecretary of State R. Nicholas Burns said..."


China urges restraint in solving Iran nuclear issue
Xinhua 20/04/06

"Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang urged restraint and flexibility in resolving the Iran nuclear issue through negotiations on Thursday.

"There is still room for resolving the issue through negotiations, and we hope all parties concerned will continue to make efforts for the proper solution of the issue through negotiations," Qin said at a regular press conference..."


Russia dismisses US call to stop cooperation with Iran
Xinhua 20/04/06

"Russia dismissed a call from the United States to stop cooperation with Iran over the Bushehr nuclear power plant project, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Thursday.

Each country has the "right to decide for itself who it will be cooperating with and in what way," Mikhail Kamynin was quoted by the Itar-Tass news agency as saying, in response to comments by U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns..."


Russia to sell air defense systems to Iran
Xinhua 20/04/06

"Russia will implement the contract to supply Tor-M1 air defense systems to Iran in full, Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Baluyevsky said here on Wednesday..."


India urges dialogue, diplomacy to resolve Iran crisis
AFP 19/04/06

"India said dialogue and diplomacy must be given a chance to resolve the crisis over Iran's disputed nuclear program.

"Dialogue and debate must be allowed to produce results which are acceptable to Iran and the world community," Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was quoted as saying by the United News of India news agency..."


23/04/06 - La Turquie montre ses muscles face aux Kurdes irakiens

Turkish Army Sends 40,000 Troops to Southeast: Source
Reuters 21/04/06

"Turkey has sent nearly 40,000 troops to the southeast to prepare for an expected rise in Kurdish rebel incursions from northern Iraq, a senior military official said on April 20.

The official, who declined to be named, said more troops would arrive from central and western Turkey to back up security forces fighting Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas in the mountainous provinces Hakkari, Van and Sirnak.

"The Kurdistan Workers Party is trying to send half of its 4,900 militants (based) in northern Iraq here and preparing for attacks in Turkey’s cities," the official told Reuters..."


23/04/06 - Les nouveaux plans US de la guerre contre la terreur

New Plans Foresee Fighting Terrorism Beyond War Zones
Washington Post 23/04/06

"Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has approved the military's most ambitious plan yet to fight terrorism around the world and retaliate more rapidly and decisively in the case of another major terrorist attack on the United States, according to defense officials.

The long-awaited campaign plan for the global war on terrorism, as well as two subordinate plans also approved within the past month by Rumsfeld, are considered the Pentagon's highest priority, according to officials familiar with the three documents who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about them publicly.

Details of the plans are secret, but in general they envision a significantly expanded role for the military -- and, in particular, a growing force of elite Special Operations troops -- in continuous operations to combat terrorism outside of war zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Developed over about three years by the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) in Tampa, the plans reflect a beefing up of the Pentagon's involvement in domains traditionally handled by the Central Intelligence Agency and the State Department.

For example, SOCOM has dispatched small teams of Army Green Berets and other Special Operations troops to U.S. embassies in about 20 countries in the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Latin America, where they do operational planning and intelligence gathering to enhance the ability to conduct military operations where the United States is not at war.

And in a subtle but important shift contained in a classified order last year, the Pentagon gained the leeway to inform -- rather than gain the approval of -- the U.S. ambassador before conducting military operations in a foreign country, according to several administration officials. "We do not need ambassador-level approval," said one defense official familiar with the order..."

"...A second detailed plan is focused specifically on al-Qaeda and associated movements, including more than a dozen groups spread across the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and Africa. Such groups include the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Ansar al-Islam in the Middle East, Jemaah Islamiya in Indonesia, and the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in Saharan Africa.

A third plan sets out how the military can both disrupt and respond to another major terrorist strike on the United States. It includes lengthy annexes that offer a menu of options for the military to retaliate quickly against specific terrorist groups, individuals or state sponsors depending on who is believed to be behind an attack. Another attack could create both a justification and an opportunity that is lacking today to retaliate against some known targets, according to current and former defense officials familiar with the plan..."

"..."SOCOM is, in fact, in charge of the global war on terror," Brown said in testimony before the House last month. In this role, SOCOM directs and coordinates actions by the military's regional combatant commands. SOCOM, if directed, can also command its own counterterrorist operations -- such as when a threat spans regional boundaries or the mission is highly sensitive -- but it has not done so yet, according to Olson, and other officials say that is likely to be the exception to the rule.

To extend its reach to more countries, SOCOM is increasing by 13,000 the number of Special Operations troops, including Special Forces soldiers skilled in language and working with indigenous militaries, and Delta Force operatives and Navy SEAL teams that form clandestine "special mission units" engaged in reconnaissance, intelligence gathering and man-hunting. Already, SOCOM is seeing its biggest deployments in history, with 7,000 troops overseas today, but the majority have been concentrated in Iraq and Afghanistan, with 85 percent last year in the Middle East, Central Asia or the Horn of Africa.

But SOCOM's more robust role -- while adding manpower, specialized skills and organization to the fight against terrorism -- has also led to some bureaucratic tensions, both inside the military with the joint staff and regional commands, as well as with the CIA and State Department. Such tensions are one reason SOCOM's plan took years.

When SOCOM first dispatched military liaison teams abroad starting in 2003, they were called "Operational Control Elements," a term changed last year because "it raised the hackles of regional commanders and ambassadors. It was a bad choice of language," said one defense official, adding: "Who can pick on Military Liaison Elements?"

State Department officials, meanwhile, said that although, for the most part, cooperation with the military teams has been good, they remain concerned over continued "gray areas" regarding their status. "Special Ops wants the flexibility and speed to go in there. . . . but there's understandably questions of how you do that and how you have clear lines of authority," one U.S. official said. There remains "continuing discussion, to put it politely, in terms of how this is going to work," the official said. SOCOM says the teams work for the regional commanders."


23/04/06 - Les nouveaux plans US du containment militaire de la Chine

More muscle, with eye on China
WashTimes 21/04/06

"The Pentagon is engaged in an extensive buildup of military forces in Asia as part of a covert strategy to strengthen and position U.S. and allied forces to deter -- or defeat -- China.

The buildup includes changes in deployments of aircraft-carrier battle groups, the conversion of nuclear-missile submarines and the regular dispatch of bombers to areas close to targets in China, according to senior Bush administration officials and a three-month investigation by The Washington Times.

Other less-visible activities that are part of what is being called a "hedge" strategy include large-scale military maneuvers, increased military alliances and training with Asian allies, the transfer of special-operations commando forces to Asia and new requirements for military personnel to learn Chinese..."


New U.S. strategy anticipates China as a threat
WashTimes 20/04/06

"The Bush administration has adopted a bold new strategy for countering the emergence of a threatening China with policies that were drawn up several years ago and started being implemented in the past several months.

The "hedge" strategy is a response to the September 11, 2001, attacks and the crisis over the April 1, 2001, midair collision between an EP-3 surveillance aircraft and a Chinese interceptor jet, according to U.S. national security officials involved with the policy.

The 23-member EP-3 crew was forced to make an emergency landing at a Chinese military base on Hainan Island and were imprisoned there for 11 days.

Months after the incident, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld met with President Bush in Crawford, Texas, along with then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice to map out plans for a new strategy to deal with China, the officials said

The meeting concluded with an agreement that U.S. efforts to develop better military-to-military relations with China were not effective in influencing China's powerful communist-dominated military. The Chinese military remains a "party army," whose first loyalty is to keeping the Communist Party in power. All agreed a new U.S. posture was needed to dissuade China from becoming a more threatening power..."


20/04/06 - Dixit Donald Rumsfeld, Bin Laden et Zawahiri "manipulent" la presse américaine

Rumsfeld Suggests bin Laden, Zarqawi Manipulating U.S. Press
E&P 18/04/06

"...For one thing, Rumsfeld said it was important to "recognize that the terrorists, Zarqawi and bin Laden and Zawahiri, those people have media committees. They are actively out there trying to manipulate the press in the United States. They are very good at it. They're much better at (laughing) managing those kinds of things than we are."..."


20/04/06 - Des plans chinois ambitieux pour l'espace

China Unveils Ambitious Space Plans at National Space Symposium
Space.com 05/04/06

"China is celebrating its 50th anniversary of space progress this year, but also laying out a sweeping plan for lofting Earth orbiting satellites for a multitude of duties, expanding its human spaceflight abilities, and carrying out a multi-step program of lunar exploration.

Luo Ge, Vice Administrator, China National Space Administration, spoke here today at the 22nd National Space Symposium (NSS).

“Generally speaking, in the coming five to eight years we will be launching about 100 satellites,” Luo told a standing room only audience here. Space technology is making its contribution to the economic and social development in China, he said..."


Voir, See :

Global Space Agenda: China
Transcripts CSIS 03/04/06


17/04/06 - Révolte chez les généraux américains, l'Iran en cause plus que l'Irak ?

Iran, Not Iraq, Fuels the ‘Rumsfeld Rebellion’
Rootless Cosmopolitan 17/04/06

"...After all, the egregious errors of which Rumsfeld is being accused were made in 2003, and America has chafed under the burden in blood and treasure that the Iraq misadventure has cost for at least the past two years. So why have the military men chosen this moment to break their silence? And, for that matter, why have they chosen Rummy as their target?..."


Revenge of the battered generals
The Times 17/04/06

"...In the past month, half a dozen former generals have called for him to quit the Pentagon for disastrously mishandling the Iraq war. Although the White House confirmed yesterday that President Bush was planning a wideranging shake-out of his team, Mr Bush interrupted his Easter break last week to give the Defence Secretary his unqualified backing. But the blizzard of criticism, which began in earnest with the publication of Cobra II, a well-sourced account of blunders made in the preparation, execution and aftermath of the 2003 invasion, shows no sign of abating..."


Democrats add to pressure for Rumsfeld to be removed
Independant 17/04/06

"Pressure grew yesterday on the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to resign despite a declaration of support from President George Bush, who insisted his "steady leadership" was still required.

With six former generals calling for Mr Rumsfeld's resignation, accusing him of arrogance and poor management over his handling of the war in Iraq, Democrats yesterday sought to add to the pressure..."


Rumsfeld's Fall Drags Hawks in Its Wake
Jim Lobe, IPS 17/04/06

"Despite White House efforts to put an end to the controversy, the battle over the fate of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld shows little sign of abating.

And the outcome, which is by no means certain, could well determine the trajectory of U.S. policy in key areas -- including Iraq, Iran and even China -- through the remaining two and a half years of George W. Bush's presidency..."


Key officer dismisses criticism of Rumsfeld
NYT 17/04/06

"Richard Myers, a prominent former air force general who served as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs during the invasion of Iraq, defended Donald Rumsfeld on Sunday, saying that the secretary of defense had given military leaders "tremendous access" for presenting their views, as the chorus of debate continued over Rumsfeld's handling of the conflict in Iraq..."


A general misunderstanding
NYT 17/04/06

"As the No. 2 at U.S. Central Command from the Sept. 11 attacks through the Iraq war, I was the daily "answer man" to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. I briefed him twice a day; few people had as much interaction with him as I did during those two years. In light of the recent calls for his resignation by several retired generals, I would like to set the record straight on what he was really like to work with..."


Pentagon fights back over Rumsfeld
CNN 17/04/06

"The Pentagon made public Sunday a memorandum it sent to supporters and critics of Donald Rumsfeld, after a week in which several retired generals called for the defense secretary's resignation.

The memo is an apparent attempt to challenge accusations that Rumsfeld has not adequately considered the views of U.S. military leaders in formulating decisions..."


Rumsfeld May Be Permanently Tainted by Iraq War, Analysts Say
Bloomberg 17/04/06

"Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will be permanently damaged by failed U.S. planning for the aftermath of the Iraq invasion even if he survives calls for his resignation from seven former military commanders, defense analysts said..."


Anatomy of a Revolt
Newsweek 17/04/06

"What made a chorus of ex-generals call for the SecDef's head? The war over the war—and how Rumsfeld is reacting.

Gen. Eric Shinseki, former chief of staff of the Army, says he is "at peace." But reached last week, he didn't sound all that peaceful. In the winter of 2003, alone among the top brass, Shinseki had warned Congress that occupying Iraq would require "several hundred thousand troops." Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, had rewarded Shinseki for his honesty by publicly castigating and shunning him..."


Bush Speaks Out for Rumsfeld
WaPo 15/04/06

"President Bush interrupted his Easter vacation yesterday to offer an unequivocal vote of confidence in Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, in a move aimed at countering a growing wave of criticism from retired generals calling for the Pentagon chief to resign over his leadership of the Iraq war..."


General Reveals Rift with Rumsfeld on Insurgents
Gareth Porter, IPS 15/04/06

"A military assessment of the Iraqi insurgency in late 2004 concluded that it had the active support of millions of Sunnis who rejected the legitimacy of a U.S. installed government, according to Lt. Gen. John R. Vines, who led all coalition forces in Iraq from January 2005 to January 2006.

That analysis conflicted with the view of Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld and Vice Pres. Dick Cheney, who believed the insurgents represented only Saddam loyalists and foreign jihadists and could be defeated by a combination of force and free elections..."


Busy McCain expresses views on Rumsfeld, immigration, Iraq war
East Valley Tribune 15/04/06

"Sen. John McCain joined the ranks of retired generals who have said they have no confidence in Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
Or more precisely, the generals are falling in line with McCain’s long-standing assessment, McCain said Friday..."


Bush Says Rumsfeld Crucial to Terror War
AP 15/04/06

"At least twice during the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld offered President Bush his resignation. On Friday, amid growing criticism of his stewardship of the war from retired generals who waged it, the issue never came up when the president and his Pentagon chief spoke.

Bush offered Rumsfeld his full support. And at no time did Rumsfeld offer to step down, according to a senior defense official familiar with the call who spoke on condition of anonymity because the call was private.

The president said in a statement that Rumsfeld's stewardship at the Pentagon was crucial for the United States.

"Earlier today, I spoke with Don Rumsfeld about ongoing military operations in the global war on terror," the president said. "I reiterated my strong support for his leadership during this historic and challenging time for our nation."..."


Ex-General: Rumsfeld Deserves Criticism
AP 14/04/06

"Retired Maj. Gen. John Batiste, one of several high-ranking military men urging the ouster of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, said Friday there is no coordinated effort to get him fired, calling a recent series of critical statements "absolutely coincidental."

"I have not talked to the other generals," Batiste, interviewed from Rochester, N.Y., said on NBC"s "Today" show. Nevertheless, he said he thinks the clamor for Rumsfeld to step down is "happening for a reason.".."


General joins attack on Rumsfeld over Iraq war
Guardian 14/04/06

"The Pentagon yesterday faced a deepening rift between its civilian and military leadership over the war on Iraq after a fourth retired general called for the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to stand down.

In the latest in a torrent of criticism centred on the Pentagon chief, Major General John Batiste, who led a division in Iraq, said Mr Rumsfeld's authoritarian leadership style had made it more difficult for professional soldiers. "We need leadership up there that respects the military as they expect the military to respect them. And that leadership needs to understand teamwork," he told CNN on Wednesday.

Gen Batiste's comments were especially startling because he is so closely associated with the civilian leadership, having served as an aide to one of the architects of the war, the former deputy Pentagon chief Paul Wolfowitz.

The ferocity of the attacks and calls for serving officers to go public with their dissent was starting to cause concern among military analysts yesterday. "If this opens up so we have more and more officers speaking up and blaming Rumsfeld and blaming senior civilians, then it is possibly heading towards a fairly dangerous civilian-military crisis," said Andrew Bacevich, a military historian at Boston University..."


Quotes: Former Generals Criticize Rumsfeld
AP 14/04/06

"Quotes from the retired generals who are calling for the ouster of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld..."


More Retired Generals Call for Rumsfeld's Resignation
NYT 13/04/06

"The widening circle of retired generals who have stepped forward to call for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's resignation is shaping up as an unusual outcry that could pose a significant challenge to Mr. Rumsfeld's leadership, current and former generals said on Thursday..."


New Military Offensive Against Rumsfeld
Jim Lobe, IPS 12/04/06

"Three years after the fall of Baghdad and the city's disastrous plunge into chaos, U.S. military brass appears engaged in a new campaign: getting rid of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld..."


17/04/06 - Une guerre USA-Iran inéluctable en 2007 ?

Les Etats-Unis se décideront à attaquer l'Iran l'an prochain (expert russe)
RIA Novosti 17/04/0+6

"Les Etats-Unis se décideront à mener une opération militaire contre l'Iran après s'être assurés d'un soutien international, a estimé lundi lors d'une table ronde au siège de RIA Novosti le directeur du Centre de sécurité international Alexeï Arbatov.

Admettre que l'Iran dispose de l'arme nucléaire serait pour l'Amérique un scénario pire qu'une guerre contre l'Iran, tant que cette arme n'y est pas encore conçue. Et, des deux maux, les Etats-Unis préféreront, certes, le moindre, a affirmé le politologue.

"Si les Américains se décident à mener une opération militaire, ils la mèneront l'an prochain, après une minutieuse préparation politique, militaire et de propagande", a indiqué l'expert..."


17/04/06 - L'Administration Bush résiste encore à des négociations bilatérales USA-Iran sur le nucléaire

US refuses to discuss Iran's nuclear plans in face-to-face talks on Iraq
Guardian 17/04/06

"Although the US is resisting pressure to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions through direct talks with Tehran, rather than sanctions or military strikes, it still intends to meet senior Iranian officials for discussions on Iraq at which it will demand an end to Iranian meddling, according to Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador in Baghdad..."


US nuclear talks with Iran urged
BBC 17/04/06

"Senators in the US have said the Bush administration should hold direct talks with Iran on its nuclear programme.

The calls for bilateral talks contrast with the president's multilateral approach through the UN.

Richard Lugar, the Republican chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, also said it was too soon to press for sanctions.


US urged to cool it and talk to Iran
The Australian 17/04/06

"INFLUENTIAL Republican senator Richard Lugar has urged the Bush administration to change its Iran strategy, saying the US must talk directly to Tehran about its nuclear ambitions instead of pushing for economic sanctions.

Senator Lugar said Iran, as the world's fourth-largest supplier of oil, was "part of the energy picture" and urged President George W. Bush to play "cool" and seek direct negotiations..."


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Explosive announcement
Al-Ahram 13/04/06

"... Iranian officials have said they will not abandon their work on the nuclear fuel cycle, but hold out the possibility that production of enriched uranium fuel "on an industrial scale" remains negotiable.

"Once Iran has mastered the know-how, they can apply it to a secret parallel military programme. Step after step, incrementally, Iranians have been proceeding, aggressively, in that direction, as we watch," said the US official..."

"...Many experts and officials believe that direct talks between Iran and the US are the only way to resolve the current stand-off. Iran's ambassador to the UN in New York, Javad Zarif, has said, both in a statement published on his mission's website (entitled "An Unnecessary Crisis"), and in an opinion article recently published in The New York Times and in the Tehran Times, that Iran has volunteered, "within a balanced package", to introduce national legislation that would "permanently ban the development, stockpiling or use of nuclear weapons"."


Nuclear 'Breakthrough' May Help Iran to Compromise
Time 12/04/06

"Analysis: Now that Tehran has proved that it can enrich uranium, it may have more room for flexibility.

Iran's announcement that it has mastered the art of enriching uranium was greeted with a predictable chorus of alarm. But despite expressions of grave concern from Washington and London to Moscow and Beijing, Tehran's nuclear "breakthrough" doesn't necessarily diminish chances for a diplomatic solution. On the contrary, Tehran has long insisted it wants a compromise that both addresses Western concerns and upholds what it says is its "right" to enrich uranium, particularly in a research setting. The latest announcement may well give the Iranians room to show greater flexibility at the bargaining table without appearing to back down.

Iran's defiance of Western demands over its nuclear program is far more popular at home than the regime itself is. But having assured its public that Western efforts to prevent Iran from mastering the fuel cycle have failed, the Iranian leadership may have actually given itself some new room to compromise. The regime reportedly wants a compromise that accepts that Iran's nuclear reactor fuel will be enriched in Russia or elsewhere abroad, but allows it to maintain, under international scrutiny, the small research facility that completed this week's experiment. The U.S. and Europe have flatly rejected that proposal, because they had hoped to deny Iran the means of attaining even the know-how to enrich uranium for fear that this would be used in a covert bomb program. Now, Iran appears to have already achieved that milestone — even though it remains years away from being able to manufacture its own reactor fuel on an industrial scale or create bomb material — which could render that objection moot..."


Haass: 'Diplomatic Package' to Halt Iranian Nuclear Development Should Include Incentives but Also Military Threat
CFR 11/04/06

"...I believe that's correct, in the sense that for five years this has been the dominant school of thought in the administration, and as recently as the president's State of the Union address several months ago, regime change was emphasized. Even subsequent to that, when the secretary of state testified before Congress, she was talking about spending seventy-five or eighty million dollars to promote domestic change within Iran. What's ironic about what we're now hearing is that some of the policies being talked about work against regime change. The unwillingness to engage Iran directly, I believe, works against regime change. History elsewhere suggests that isolation reinforces hardliners. And secondly, if military force were ever to be used against Iran, I fear what you might describe as a rally-around-the-flag effect: that it would strengthen the hands of those people in Iran who see the world in radical or apocalyptic terms, and it could very well weaken the hands of those who are arguing for a more reformist path that would involve them more with the United States and the West..."


17/04/06 - Nucléaire iranien : l'impératif stratégique russo-chinois

Iran’s Nukes in a Power Game
Yale Global 06/04/06

"World leaders disagree about how to control Iran’s nuclear program. With respect to Iran’s steadfast dedication to preserving its uranium-enrichment program, the US and the EU-3 countries are upfront – they want to halt Iran before the program advances any further. China and Russia agree that Iran should not acquire nuclear weapons, but disagree with the US and Europe about how to contain Iran. The two nations calculate not only the risks of the Iran program, but also their relations with the US as the world’s sole superpower. US decision-making preceding the Iraq war set a precedent for unilateral action that both China and Russia oppose. As China and Russia increasingly view themselves in competition with the US, Iran’s enrichment program has become a test of their bargaining power with Washington on broader strategic issues. While the US and the EU-3 sound alarms about Iran, and China and Russia straddle the fence, the Arab governments have been unruffled about proliferation in their vicinity. Most Arab leaders would prefer the Middle East to be a nuclear-free zone, but Israel likely won’t give up their nuclear weapons any time soon. So most Arab leaders expect that nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran could deter any attacks from the US or Israel..."


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China, Russia welcome Iran into the fold
ATimes 17/04/06

"The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which maintained it had no plans for expansion, is now changing course. Mongolia, Iran, India and Pakistan, which previously had observer status, will become full members. SCO's decision to welcome Iran into its fold constitutes a political statement. Conceivably, SCO would now proceed to adopt a common position on the Iran nuclear issue at its summit meeting June 15..."

"...A People's Daily commentary on April 13 read: "The real intention behind the US fueling the Iran issue is to prompt the UN to impose sanctions against Iran, and to pave the way for a regime change in that country. The US's global strategy and its Iran policy emanate out of its decision to use various means, including military means, to change the Iranian regime. This is the US's set target and is at the root of the Iran nuclear issue."

The commentary suggested Washington seeks a regime change in Iran with a view to establishing American hegemony in the Middle East. Gennady Yefstafiyev, a former general in Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, wrote: "The US's long term goals in Iran are obvious: to engineer the downfall of the current regime; to establish control over Iran's oil and gas; and to use its territory as the shortest route for the transportation of hydrocarbons under US control from the regions of Central Asia and the Caspian Sea bypassing Russia and China. This is not to mention Iran's intrinsic military and strategic significance.".."


17/04/06 - De nouvelles images des sites nucléaires iraniens

ISIS Imagery Brief: New Activities at the Esfahan and Natanz Nuclear Sites in Iran - By Paul Brannan and David Albright April 14, 2006 The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS)