Semaine du 14 au 20/04/2007


Russie, Chine, Inde - Russia, China and India: The 'strategic triangle'
Commentary by Harsh V Pant for ISN Security Watch (19/04/07)

"A "strategic triangle" involving Russia, China and India is not likely to come to fruition any time soon to balance US power, despite the occasional rhetoric of joint declarations..."


Lire également, Read also :

Russia’s Wrong Direction: What the United States Can and Should Do
Council on Foreign Relations March 2006

"Fifteen years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, “U.S.-Russia relations are clearly headed in the wrong direction,” finds an Independent Task Force on U.S. policy toward Russia sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. “Contention is crowding out consensus. The very idea of a ‘strategic partnership’ no longer seems realistic,” it concludes..."


Irak - Iraq’s Troubled Future: The Uncertain Way Ahead
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies April 13, 2007

"The prospects in Iraq are not good, and the level of violence and civil conflict is significantly higher than most Iraqi and US government sources like to publicly admit. Two sets of recent public opinion polls are used in this analysis, along with data taken from the most recent Department of Defense Quarterly Report, to show the level of conflict, and highlight Iraqi concerns and fears.

At the same time, the same Iraqi public opinion polls show that the majority of Iraqis, other than Kurds, still want some form of national unity, not federalism or separation. They also show that many Iraqis have not given up on the future. The real question now is whether the US has the patience to at least play out its current strategy, and accept the fact that any hope of success must be measured in years of US action, not months..."


Irak - Iraq: From a Flood to a Trickle — Neighboring States Stop Iraqis Fleeing War and Persecution
Human Rights Watch 04/07

"Now that the international community is finally beginning to pay attention to the existence of an estimated 2 million Iraqi refugees in the Middle East, Iraq’s neighbors are closing off escape routes, leaving another 2 million internally displaced persons and untold numbers of other war-affected and persecuted Iraqis trapped and denied the fundamental right to seek asylum in other countries.  As high-level government officials meet in Geneva today for the International Conference on Addressing the Humanitarian Needs of Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons inside Iraq and in Neighboring Countries convened by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Iraq’s neighbors are refusing entry, imposing onerous new passport and visa requirements, and literally building fences to keep out further refugees.  And the legal status and living conditions for those who have managed to escape the armed conflict in Iraq is becoming more precarious by the day..."


Irak, Turquie, Etats-Unis - Iraq and the Kurds: Resolving the Kirkuk Crisis
International Crisis Group, 19 April 2007

"With every day and each exploding bomb that kills schoolchildren or shoppers, hopes for peaceful resolution of the Kirkuk question recede. The approach favoured by the Kurds, constitution-based steps culminating in a referendum by year’s end, is bitterly opposed by Kirkuk’s other principal communities – Arabs and Turkomans – who see it as a rigged process with predetermined outcome. Their preference, to keep Kirkuk under federal government control, is rejected by the Kurds. With all sides dug in and the Kurds believing Kirkuk is a lost heirloom they are about to regain, the debate should move off outcomes to focus on a fair and acceptable process. For the Kurds, that means postponing the referendum, implementing confidence-building measures and seeking a new mechanism prioritising consensus. The U.S. needs to recognise the risk of an explosion in Kirkuk and press the Kurds, the Baghdad government and Turkey alike to adjust policies and facilitate a peaceful settlement..."


Nigeria - Nigeria’s Election Tumult
Council on Foreign Relations, April 18, 2007

"No one was expecting Nigeria’s elections this month to be free and fair. But the violence and vote rigging (IHT) documented across the country during gubernatorial elections on Saturday dashed hopes that the polls would be legitimate. Ballot boxes were stuffed with votes in favor of the ruling People’s Democratic Party, voting did not take place at all in several parts of the Niger Delta, and thugs beat up opposition party officials in Oyo state, according to a Human Rights Watch news release, based on accounts from journalists and election observers on the scene. Some—including a coalition of local electoral observers, an EU team, and several senior government officials—have called for those elections to be invalidated and rerun..."


Lire également, Read also :

Nigeria’s ‘Godfather Syndrome’
Council on Foreign Relations, April 16, 2007


Pakistan - Pakistan: The army as the state
By Ehsan Masood for openDemocracy (16/04/07)

"Pakistan’s economy and institutions are deeply penetrated by the country’s army, a new book and documentary film reveal..."


Pakistan - Pakistan: Karachi’s Madrasas and Violent Extremism
International Crisis Group 29 March 2007

"More than five years after President Pervez Musharraf declared his intention to crack down on violent sectarian and jihadi groups and to regulate the network of madrasas (religious schools) on which they depend, his government’s reform program is in shambles. Banned sectarian and jihadi groups, supported by networks of mosques and madrasas, continue to operate openly in Pakistan’s largest city, Karachi, and elsewhere. The international community needs to press President Musharraf to fulfil his commitments, in particular to enforce genuine controls on the madrasas and allow free and fair national elections in 2007. It should also shift the focus of its donor aid from helping the government’s ineffectual efforts to reform the religious schools to improving the very weak public school sector..."


Iran, Azerbaijan, Etats-Unis - The 'Southern Azerbaijan' problem
By Karl Rahder for ISN Security Watch (19/04/07)

"Azeris make up roughly 24 percent of Iran's population and Tehran is worried about just whose side they are on as rumors of US infiltration are taken seriously, complicating Azerbaijan's own foreign policy outlook..."


Etats-Unis - World Publics Reject US Role as the World Leader
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org April 17, 2007

"A multinational poll finds that publics around the world reject the idea that the United States should play the role of preeminent world leader. Most publics say the United States plays the role of world policeman more than it should, fails to take their country’s interests into account and cannot be trusted to act responsibly..."


Etats-Unis - United States Special Operations Command, 1987-2007
SOCOM History and Research Office, MacDill Air Force Base (via Federation of American Scientists)

"The year 2007 marks not only the 20th anniversary of the establishment of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), but also a time of unprecedented challenges and responsibility for America’s Special Operations Forces (SOF). The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 have resulted in a sea change for the United States, and USSOCOM has been assigned a lead role in the the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT).

Since its creation in 1987, USSOCOM has supported conventional forces and conducted independent special operations throughout the world, participating in all major combat operations. SOF has also carried out other missions ranging from non-combat evacuations to bilateral training missions. In executing all of these assignments, USSOCOM personnel have demonstrated daring, skill, and versatility. SOF’s capabilities were broadly employed in Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM..."


Terrorisme - From the Horse’s Mouth: Unraveling Al-Qa`ida’s Target Selection Calculus
By Sammy Salama and David Wheeler, Center for Nonproliferation Studies 17 April 2007

"Al-Qa`ida’s primarily selects economic targets to derail the American economy, to sever American and Muslim alliances, and to remove all Western influence from the Middle East..."


Criminalité économique - Pirating the American Dream
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace April 12, 2007

"On April 12, 2007, in a hearing before the Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance, Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Moisés Naím, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, discussed intellectual property theft’s impact on America’s place in the global economy and strategies for improving enforcement.."


Criminalité économique - Europol: Europe's potential FBI
By Brooks Tigner in Brussels for ISN Security Watch (16/04/07)

"As the EU discusses boosting Europol's reach to fight terrorism and crack down on organized crime, experts express concerns about civil liberties violations and the security implications of information sharing..."


Criminalité économique - Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Source Tool
U.S. Security and Exchange Commission January 1, 2007

"The Securities and Exchange Commission’s staff today announced the availability of a new compliance tool to assist anti-money laundering (AML) compliance efforts by broker-dealers. The “AML Source Tool” is on the Commission’s website at: http://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/amlsourcetool.htm

Broker-dealers have compliance obligations under statutory and regulatory provisions and related rules of the securities self-regulatory organizations (SROs). The AML Source Tool, developed by the SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE), compiles and organizes key AML laws, rules and related guidance applicable to broker-dealers and provides links to these materials to promote easy accessibility..."


Pakistan, Etats-Unis, Medias - The “Good” Muslims: U.S. Newspaper Coverage of Pakistan
International Center for Media and the Public Agenda, University of Maryland 16/04/07

"The “Good” Muslims found patterns of coverage in major U.S. newspapers in the year following September 11, 2001 and five years later in 2006 that may still be contributing to public confusion over the need for a global “War on Terror” and the public’s perception of the global terrorist risk..."


Risque, Amérique Latine - Latin America@Risk: A Global Risk Network Briefing
World Economic Forum 04/07

"The World Economic Forum today released its Latin America@Risk report. Produced by the Forum’s Global Risk Network, the report emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding external economic shocks, global climate change, political instability and social inequality, and its effect on regional growth and welfare.

The report notes the increasing strength and robustness of Latin America’s economies, while exploring the key economic, environmental, geopolitical and societal issues that put that progress at risk. While all four of these issues emerge from the broader global risk environment, the regional manifestations present particular challenges for governments, industry and civil society throughout Latin America..."


Compétitivité, Monde arabe - The Arab World Competitiveness Report 2007
World Economic Forum 04/07

"United Arab Emirates is the most competitive economy in the Arab world among the countries in the third and most advanced stage of development according to The Arab World Competitiveness Report 2007, released today by the World Economic Forum. It is followed by Qatar and Kuwait. Among countries in the second stage of development, Tunisia and Oman are the best performing Arab economies, while Egypt is the regional best performer in the third group of countries.

This year’s report has expanded coverage to 13 Arab economies – Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Syria, Tunisia and United Arab Emirates. Libya, Oman and Syria are assessed for the first time. Rankings are presented in three country groups according to the stage of development to enable benchmarking against peers in other parts of the world..."