Semaine du 14 au 20/01/2007


Etats-Unis - Transcript: Intelligence Reform Progress Report (January 10, 2006)
by John Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence & Director, Central Intelligence Agency General Michael V. Hayden
Office of the Director of National Intelligence 19/01/07


Etats-Unis - Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence
by John Negroponte, Director of National Intelligence
Office of the Director National Intelligence 11/01/07

"We know that the nation requires more from our Intelligence Community than ever before because America confronts a greater diversity of threats and challenges than ever before. Globalization, the defining characteristic of our age, mandates global intelligence coverage. Globalization is not a ìthreatî in and of itself; it has more positive than negative characteristics.

But globalization does facilitate the terrorist threat, heightens the danger of WMD proliferation, and contributes to regional instability and reconfigurations of power and influenceóespecially through competition for energy. Globalization also exposes the United States to mounting counterintelligence challenges. Our comparative advantage in some areas of technical intelligence, where we have been dominant in the past, is being eroded. Several nonstate actors, including international terrorist groups, conduct intelligence activities as effectively as capable state intelligence services. A significant number of states also conduct economic espionage. China and Russiaís foreign intelligence services are among the most aggressive in collecting against sensitive and protected US targets.

This array of challenges to our national security is shaped by dramatic advances in telecommunications, technology, new centers of economic growth, and the consequences of crises within traditional cultures..."


Voir aussi, See also :

Annual Threat Assessment to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence


Etats-Unis, Irak - The New Bush Strategy in Iraq: Is Victory Still Possible?
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies January 16, 2007

"President Bush has presented a new strategy for the war in Iraq that may be able to defeat the insurgency and reverse Iraq’s drift towards large-scale civil war. His speech does, however, raise many questions as to both the risks it will create over the coming months and the real-world ability to actually implement his plans.

The new Bush approach is considerably more sophisticated and comprehensive than the one the President could fit into his 20-minute address – which had been cut back from a longer 40-minute version. It combines political, military, and economic action in ways that do offer a significant hope of success. The following analysis examines the strengths and weaknesses of the proposals in the President’s speech in detail, but also adds important further details and clarifications by Secretary of State Rice, Secretary of Defense Gates, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Peter Pace..."


Etats-Unis, Irak - CBO Testimony: Issues in Budgeting for Operations in Iraq and the War on Terrorism
Congressional Budget Office 18/01/07

"Since September 2001, by CBO’s reckoning, the Congress has appropriated $503 billion for military operations and other activities related to Iraq and the war on terrorism. Little of the funding used to finance the war has been subject to the budgetary constraints imposed on regular appropriations. Rather, such funding has been exempted from normal budget procedures in several ways. One method has been to designate it as an emergency requirement, and a second has been to deem it for ‘overseas contingency operations related to the global war on terrorism’—both of which have allowed for exemption under provisions of the budget resolutions in effect during that period. A third method has been to provide a specific allocation in the budget resolution and authorize an adjustment to that limit to accommodate additional spending if necessary.."


Irak, Droits de l'homme - UNAMI Human Rights Report, 1 November-31 December 2006
U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq

"...Without significant progress on the rule of law, sectarian violence will continue indefinitely and eventually spiral out of control thus thwarting efforts by the Government in the political, security or economic spheres. UNAMI Human Rights Office (HRO) has continued to receive information about a large number of indiscriminate and targeted killings. Unidentified bodies have appeared daily in Baghdad and other cities. According to information made available to UNAMI, 6,376 civilians were violently killed in November and December 2006, with no less than 4,731 in Baghdad, most of them as a result of gunshot wounds. Compared to the number killed in September and October, there has been a slight reduction. It is evident however that violence has not been contained but has continued to claim a very high number of innocent victims. During 2006, a total of 34,452 civilians have been violently killed and 36,685 wounded..."


Irak, Reconstruction - Reconstruction in Iraq: The Uncertain Way Ahead
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies 19/01/07

"The course of the fighting on Iraq is now so uncertain that no one can predict when it will be possible to begin the systematic reconstruction of the economy and the petroleum sector. What began as an insurgency has become a sectarian and ethnic conflict that risks tearing the country apart and could lock it into a bloody civil war or divide it between Shi’ite, Sunni and Kurd.

This fighting has compounded the serious, if not critical, problems in the past allocation of aid. The US programmed some $38 billion dollars in aid to Iraq between its invasion in 2003 and President Bush’s announcement of a new strategy in January 2007. The international community pledged some $15 billion more.

The new Bush strategy at most will buy time and support military operations for a year or so in ways that can weaken the economic incentives to support sectarian and ethnic fighting. To be successful, however, past aid plans will probably have to be totally restructured during the course of 2007 and 2008..."


Europe, Défense, Sécurité - Germany vows to make Europe safer
By Federico Bordonaro for ISN Security Watch (19/01/07)

"Germany wants to expand the ESDP during its EU presidency, but its relationship with France may force a change of plans.

As Germany took the helm of the EU’s rotating presidency on 1 January, Berlin vowed to “further strengthen and expand” the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). German Interior Minister Wolfgang Schauble, a committed Europeanist, also told the press that one of Berlin’s chief objectives would be to “make Europe a safer place” by enhancing the EU’s capabilities in the struggle against “international terrorism” and “illegal immigration.”

However, since France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed EU Constitutional Treaty in 2005, little progress has been made in the ESDP. Moreover, Brussels’ often cumbersome institutional functioning, its urgent need for energy security and France’s political stalemate during the presidential campaign may force Berlin to prioritize other aspects of European politics..."


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L'Allemagne et l'Europe : nouvelle donne ou déjà vu?
Notre Europe 2007

Les perspectives pour la présidence allemande de l’Union européenne
Entretien avec Sylvie Goulard – Présidente du Mouvement européen - France
Fondation Robert Schuman 22/01/07

Beijing profits from Berlin ties
By Federico Bordonaro, Asia Times 16/12/06

Voir aussi, See also :

Russie 2007. Des enjeux majeurs dans un climat tendu et incertain
CERI-SciencePo 01/07


Europe, Russie, Energie - Russian natural gas: Regional dependence
Congressional Research Service (via Foreign Press Centers/U.S. Department of State) January 5, 2007

"Russia is the dominant natural gas supplier to Europe and neighboring former Soviet states, as well as a major provider of oil. Some countries are entirely or largely dependent upon Russian energy supplies, particularly other Soviet successor states. As such, Russia has some ability to dictate natural gas prices. Russia cut off the gas supply to Ukraine and Moldova in January 2006 and threatened to cut off gas supplies to Belarus and Georgia during late 2006 price negotiations. These and other actions in the interim damaged Russia’s reputation as a reliable energy supplier, spurred importing countries to seek other sources, and provoked criticism that it is using energy as a political tool..."


Monde musulman - Islam: Sunnis and Shiites
Congressional Research Service (via Foreign Press Centers/U.S. Department of State) December 11, 2006

"The majority of the world’s Muslim population follows the Sunni branch of Islam, and approximately 10-15% of all Muslims follow the Shiite (Shi’ite, Shi’a, Shia) branch. Shiite populations constitute a majority in Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, and Azerbaijan. There are also significant Shiite populations in Afghanistan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. Sunnis and Shiites share most basic religious tenets. However, their differences sometimes have been the basis for religious intolerance, political infighting, and sectarian violence. This report1 includes a historical background of the Sunni-Shiite split and discusses the differences in religious beliefs and practices between and within each Islamic sect as well as their similarities. The report also relates Sunni and Shiite religious beliefs to discussions of terrorism and Iraq that may be of interest during the first session of the 110th Congress..."


Asie Centrale - Roots of Radical Islam in Central Asia
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace January 2007

"In this Carnegie Paper, Roots of Radical Islam in Central Asia, senior associate Martha Brill Olcott explores the actions of regional Islamic communities, particularly in Uzbekistan, to protest against governments that are “both largely unresponsive and…[made up] almost entirely by those who reject the teachings of Islam” – actions that include the evolution of the jihadi movements and the rise of key Islamic clerics and leaders. 

Olcott contends that “the question of the relationship between Islamic believers and the state is a critical one; depending on how it is resolved, it either encourages, permits, or discourages the use of violence in the name of Islam.”..."


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Radical Islam in Central Asia
By IWPR staff 18/01/07 via ISN

"A United States intelligence report concludes that the political situation in Central Asia is conducive to the development of radical Islam in the region, and that this makes countries in the region unreliable partners for the US. Political observers in the region have criticized the analysis behind the findings, saying they are based on stereotypes..."


Asie Centrale - Economic Dimensions of Security in Central Asia
RAND January 19, 2007

"This report assesses the economic dimensions of security in post-Soviet Central Asia and considers their implications for the role of the United States. The September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States led to the realization among policymakers that instability, failed and failing states, and economic and political underdevelopment present security concerns not just to the states that suffer directly from these problems but to the global community as a whole. In this regard, Central Asia may be at a crossroads, as demonstrated by the so-called “Tulip Revolution” in Kyrgyzstan and the unrest in Uzbekistan in 2005. However, it is unclear whether the states in the region have the institutional capacity to implement sound and lasting domestic reform and what the appropriate role is for the United States and the international community. Although some have argued that the U.S. military presence in the region could be used as a vehicle for encouraging political and economic reform, the record to date provides little grounds for optimism. In fact, Central Asia will increasingly diversify its economic and military relationships with neighbors such as Russia, China, and Iran, potentially crowding out direct U.S. influence in the region. U.S. policymakers should consider a lower-profile military presence, a sharper focus of diplomatic and economic resources on specific issues that may affect counter-terror and counter-narcotics efforts in the region, and a nuanced approach that engages alternative power centers, realizing that the principles and interests behind U.S. involvement are more enduring than any single regime is likely to be..."


Somalie - U.S. Strikes Somalia
Council on Foreign Relations 10/01/07

"The last time the U.S. military conducted operations in Somalia in 1993, eighteen soldiers died in a two-day firefight on the streets of Mogadishu. That prompted a quick pullout and a nearly decade-long aversion to U.S. military intervention. But much has changed since the 1990s, and now, under the auspices of the “global war on terror,” Somalia is once again in U.S. crosshairs, evidenced Monday night in an air strike in southern Somalia (FT) which left many dead. The strike may mark the start of a more robust U.S. presence in the Horn of Africa. On Tuesday, the Navy announced the deployment of an aircraft carrier off the coast of Somalia, where three other warships have patrolled the waters since violence in the country escalated two weeks ago. Later on Tuesday, helicopter gunships attacked fighters in the south (AP), though it was not clear whether the aircraft were American..."


Lire également, Read also :

Somalia's Terrorist Infestation
Council on Foreign Relations June 6, 2006

Somalie : la traque de Fazul Abdullah Mohamed
Alain Rodier, CF2R 01/07

Somalia: Don't Forget about the Missiles....
Strategic Security Blog 09/01/07


Etats-Unis, Sécurité du territoire - Nuclear powerplants: Vulnerability to terrorist attack
Congressional Research Service (via National Council for Science and the Environment) October 4, 2006

"Protection of nuclear power plants from land-based assaults, deliberate aircraft crashes, and other terrorist acts has been a heightened national priority since the attacks of September 11, 2001. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has strengthened its regulations on nuclear reactor security, but critics contend that implementation by the industry has been too slow and that further measures are needed. Several provisions to increase nuclear reactor security are included in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, signed August 8, 2005. The law requires NRC to conduct “force-on-force” security exercises at nuclear power plants at least once every three years and to revise the “design-basis threat” that nuclear plant security forces must be able to meet, among other measures. This report will be updated as events warrant..."


Etats-Unis, Sécurité du territoire - Maritime Security: Potential Terrorist Attacks and Protection Priorities
Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists) January 9, 2007

"A key challenge for U.S. policy makers is prioritizing the nation’s maritime security activities among a virtually unlimited number of potential attack scenarios. While individual scenarios have distinct features, they may be characterized along five common dimensions: perpetrators, objectives, locations, targets, and tactics. In many cases, such scenarios have been identified as part of security preparedness exercises, security assessments, security grant administration, and policy debate. There are far more potential attack scenarios than likely ones, and far more than could be meaningfully addressed with limited counter-terrorism resources.

There are a number of logical approaches to prioritizing maritime security activities. One approach is to emphasize diversity, devoting available counterterrorism resources to a broadly representative sample of credible scenarios. Another approach is to focus counter-terrorism resources on only the scenarios of greatest concern based on overall risk, potential consequence, likelihood, or related metrics. U.S. maritime security agencies appear to have followed policies consistent with one or the other of these approaches in federally-supported port security exercises and grant programs. Legislators often appear to focus attention on a small number of potentially catastrophic scenarios..."


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Maritime Terrorism - Risk and Liability
RAND October 16, 2006


Terrorisme - Beyond al-Qaeda
RAND November 16, 2006

"To defeat the global jihadist movement, the United States should move beyond the boundaries of conventional counter-terrorism and seek to undermine support for Islamic terrorism within Muslim nations, according to a RAND Corporation study issued today.

The report says this type of campaign enabled the United States to help nurture opposition to Communism in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, culminating in the overthrow of ruling regimes and the collapse of the Soviet system.

The study by RAND, a nonprofit research organization, says a successful campaign against Islamic terrorism requires: attacking the ideological underpinnings of global jihadism; severing ideological and other links between terrorist groups; and strengthening the capabilities of front-line states to counter local jihadist threats..."


Capital intellectuel - Value generation trumps asset protection in European property strategies
Economist Intelligence Unit 18/01/07

"New research from the Economist Intelligence Unit, based on a survey of over 400 senior executives, explores how European firms plan to utilise their intellectual assets

The strategic importance of intellectual property (IP) is growing rapidly, and European companies are changing how they manage IP. Protecting the firm's "crown jewels"—its patented or copyrighted assets—remains critical. However, according to a new report from the Economist Intelligence Unit, pressure from shareholders is also building to use swollen IP portfolios to improve top-line results. When asked the key drivers in their quest for better IP management, European executives most frequently cite the opportunity to expand the revenue base (50% of survey respondents), slightly more than mention the need to protect investments in R&D (49%)..."


Libéralisme - 2007 Index of Economic Freedom
Heritage 2007

"The 2007 Index of Economic Freedom measures and ranks 161 countries across 10 specific freedoms, things like tax rates and property rights. View scores and rankings for any country, along with detailed data and background analysis..."


Transport aérien - Air transport in Europe in 2005
Eurostat 2007

"The total number of passengers transported by air to or from and within the EU-25 Member States in 2005 was about 706 million. This represents an increase of 8.5% compared to 2004.

All Member States except Malta reported increases in the number of air passengers between 2004 and 2005. The growth registered by all of the 8 new Member States in Central and Eastern Europe was significantly higher than the average for EU-25. Latvia recorded the largest increase (77% growth).

The top ranked airport in terms of passenger numbers remains London/Heathrow with about 68 million representing some 6% of the total EU-25 air passenger transport. Paris/Charles de Gaulle and Frankfurt/Main maintained second and third places.

Six country-to-country flows within the EU-25 recorded over 10 million passengers in 2005. The largest were Spain-UK with about 35 million and Germany-Spain with 21 million. Regarding airport-to-airport flows, Madrid/Barajas – Barcelona is the largest within the EU-25 (4.3 million) and London/Heathrow – New York/JFK Intl. is the main one on extra-EU-25 transport (2.9 million).

The total volume of freight and mail transported by air transport to or from and within the EU-25 Member States in 2005 was almost 11 million tonnes (excluding Sweden). 80% of freight transport was with extra-EU-25 countries. Four Member States reported the carriage of over one million tonnes: Germany led (3.0 million tonnes), followed by the UK (2.5 million tonnes), the Netherlands (1.6 million tonnes) and France (1.5 million tonnes)..."


Médias - Media Predictions 2007
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu January 2007

"2007’s predictions cover: the commercialization of social networks and user-generated content, the disparity in metrics used to quantify new media and traditional media, opportunities in China’s media sector, the growth of real economies within virtual worlds, the long tail’s alternative forms, the immediacy of VOD to PCs, public participation in television programs, the growing symbiosis between online publications and paper sources and finally the cost of free media..."


Telecom - Telecommunications Predictions 2007
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu January 2007

"This year’s telecommunications predictions cover: the possibility of demand exceeding supply on the Internet; the net neutrality debate, the need for broadband appliances, suggestions for making mobile video pay its way, cellular mobile’s move indoors, strategies for IPTV, the benefits of small-sized telecommunications applications, potential pitfalls of triple play, the connectivity chasm and the rising cost of free telecommunications..."


Technologie - Technology Predictions 2007
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu January 2007

"Our 2007 predictions cover the environment’s growing influence on the technology sector, the reinvention of the user-interface, digital storage’s hidden costs, the emergence of biometric security, the varied costs of free technology, the potentially global impact of carousel fraud, new combinations of existing technologies, the technology industry’s dividend from social networking, the emergence of parasitic power systems and the technologically enhanced human.."


Technologie, Europe - Europe in pursuit of excellence
RAND January 19, 2007

"The European Commission has proposed the creation of a European Institute of Technology (EIT) to rival the world's premier technology institutes. This brief outlines RAND Europe's analysis of the initiative..."