Semaine du 11 au 17/02/2007


Afghanistan - Winning in Afghanistan: The Challenges and the Response
Testimony to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, By Anthony H. Cordesman, February 15, 2007

"Key Challenges:

• Government and governance ineffective at national, provincial and local levels; corruption is endemic.
• Economy is not moving forward at the level that benefits ordinary Afghan; rural development very weak with major problems with narcotics.
• Lack of an educated class, modern infrastructure, economic base to build upon.
• Current US and NATO aid and activity levels are inadequate.
• Reconstituted enemy is more lethal
• Pakistan sanctuary is enemy advantage
• Major rise in violence in West and South, Rising threat in otherareas
• Violence likely to be at least equal next year and may well be higher.
• Afghan forces developing but require major increases in aid and years of support; police are a critical challenge
• NATO effort has insufficient forces and only US, Canadian, British, Danes, and Dutch forces are in the fight. Romanians have been in limited action but are largely road bound due to wrong APCs.
• Increased Narco-trafficking/crime
• Threat exploits limited transportation infrastructure."

Afrique, Etatd-Unis - U.S. Africa Command Briefing
U.S. Department of Defense 07/02/07

"“This new command will strengthen our security cooperation with Africa and help to create new opportunities to bolster the capability of our partners in Africa. Africa Command will enhance our efforts to help bring peace and security to the people of the Africa and promote our common goals of development, health, education, democracy, and economic growth in Africa.” (President George Bush)..."


Corée du Nord, Etats-Unis - North Korea - Denuclearization Action Plan
US Department of State February 13, 2007

"The following action plan was released in Beijing on February 13, 2007 following the conclusion of the latest round of Six-Party Talks..."

Lire également, Read also :

Initial Actions To Implement Six-Party Joint Statement
US Department of State February 13, 2007


Russie, Etats-Unis - Wladimir W. Putin Speech at the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy
Munich Conference on Security Policy 02/10/2007

"...I consider that the unipolar model is not only unacceptable but also impossible in today’s world. And this is not only because if there was individual leadership in today’s – and precisely in today’s – world, then the military, political and economic resources would not suffice. What is even more important is that the model itself is flawed because at its basis there is and can be no moral foundations for modern civilisation.

Along with this, what is happening in today’s world – and we just started to discuss this – is a tentative to introduce precisely this concept into international affairs, the concept of a unipolar world.

And with which results?

Unilateral and frequently illegitimate actions have not resolved any problems. Moreover, they have caused new human tragedies and created new centres of tension. Judge for yourselves: wars as well as local and regional conflicts have not diminished. Mr Teltschik mentioned this very gently. And no less people perish in these conflicts – even more are dying than before. Significantly more, significantly more!

Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force – military force – in international relations, force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts. As a result we do not have sufficient strength to find a comprehensive solution to any one of these conflicts. Finding a political settlement also becomes impossible.

We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are, as a matter of fact, coming increasingly closer to one state’s legal system. One state and, of course, first and foremost the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way. This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this?

In international relations we increasingly see the desire to resolve a given question according to so-called issues of political expediency, based on the current political climate.

And of course this is extremely dangerous. It results in the fact that no one feels safe. I want to emphasise this – no one feels safe! Because no one can feel that international law is like a stone wall that will protect them. Of course such a policy stimulates an arms race.

The force’s dominance inevitably encourages a number of countries to acquire weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, significantly new threats – though they were also well-known before – have appeared, and today threats such as terrorism have taken on a global character.

I am convinced that we have reached that decisive moment when we must seriously think about the architecture of global security..."


Lire, Read :

Putin: the louse that roared
Council on Foreign Relations, 2/14/2007


Lire également, Read also :

Munich Security Conference Harks Back to the Cold War
By Julianne Smith, CSIS February 12, 2007

Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests
Congressional Research Service (via Federation of American Scientists 18/01/07


Russie, Europe - Russia and the European Union: The Sources and Limits of “Special Relationships”
Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College February 15, 2007

"Russia and the West have avoided renewed confrontation despite many post Cold War crises, but illiberal trends in Russia rule out any prospect of developing a mutual agenda for closer integration. Russian engagement with the leading Euro-Atlantic institutions on a special, but still subordinate, nonmember basis remains a clever yet suboptimal substitute. Such relationships, as this monograph about Russia and the European Union explains, tend to produce shallow collaboration, symbolic summitry and costly standoffs. Closer cooperation is blocked by an ongoing dispute over terms, which is rooted in asymmetries in power, ambivalent preferences, uncertainty about the distributional costs and benefits of deeper engagement, and Russia’s continued unwillingness or inability to lock-in the liberal domestic structures necessary to make credible commitments. Moscow’s renewed self-confidence and geopolitical ambitions, bolstered by sustained economic growth and high energy prices, complicate the bargaining and further strain these special relationships which persist for lack of a realistic, superior alternative..."


Japon, Etats-Unis - The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Getting Asia Right through 2020
Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 16, 2007

"At a time of global uncertainty and transition, enduring U.S. interests demand a clear-eyed look over the horizon to grasp the challenges ahead and the potential opportunities to best shape the emerging world order. With half the world's population, one-third of the global economy, and growing economic, financial, technological, and political weight in the international system, Asia is key to a stable, prosperous world order that best advances American interests. The goal of this report is to outline a vision that offers the best prospect for achieving "a balance of power that favors freedom."..."


Pakistan - Shiite-Sunni conflict rises in Pakistan
Christian Science Monitor, 2/2/2007

"...Pakistan's 30 million Shiites – numbering more than Iraq's – could become a flash point if sectarian violence spreads..."


Iran - Iran: Ahmadi-Nejad’s Tumultuous Presidency
International Crisis Group 6 February 2007

"Though much of the focus since Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad’s June 2005 electoral victory has been on Iran’s foreign policy, the fate of his presidency will ride at least as much on his domestic performance. Elected on a platform of economic justice and clean government, he will be judged chiefly on those grounds. So far, results have been decidedly mixed. High oil prices have enabled greater expenditure on social programs. But on the whole, the president has been unable to fulfil promises, and his still early tenure has been marked by repeated conflicts with other institutions and power centres. The drubbing experienced by the president and his allies in the December 2006 elections for municipal councils and the Assembly of Experts signalled serious problems, both within the conservative camp and with the wider public. It also suggested that domestic rather than foreign pressure remains the best and safest road to reform..."


Iran, Etats-Unis - Iran: "Weakling" or "Hegemon"?
By Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS February 20, 2007

"Iran is a state that must be assessed largely in terms of its capabilities, not its intentions. Its political structure is too unstable to predict, and its choice of defensive or offensive options is more likely to be determined by its perceptions of future opportunities and risks than its current policies and strategy. Seen from this perspective, Iran is not a “weakling,” but neither is it capable of major aggression or becoming a regional “hegemon” if it meets effective resistance from its neighbors and the US..."


Iran, Nucléaire - Iran's Developing Nuclear and Missile Programs
By Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS February 16, 2007

"This report provides an overview of Iran's nuclear program, its development of delivery assets for nuclear weapons, and a discussion of the resulting strategic challenges. It traces the key developments in uranium enrichment and heavy-water technology and the reactions of the international community, provides assessments of the nuclear program and information on the latest in missile procurement and development..."


Irak, Humanitaire - Fighters fill humanitarian vacuum
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 14/02/07

"Militia fighters and insurgents responsible for much of the internecine violence in Iraq are also offering humanitarian assistance to their own communities to fill a vacuum left by the government and aid agencies..."


Irak, Etats-Unis - After the Surge - The Case for U.S. Military Disengagement from Iraq
CFR Special Report 02/2007

"The American intervention in Iraq unseated a murderous despot in April 2003. It also triggered the collapse of the Iraqi state, plunged the country into a civil war that brought about the deaths of tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians, wrecked the country’s already debilitated infrastructure, and spurred violent sectarian rivalries that threatened to spill over into the broader Middle East.

The crisis has now moved beyond the capacity of Washington to control on its own. The results of the midterm elections show that public support for the present course has buckled. The United States lacks the military resources and the domestic and international political support to master the situation. The number of U.S. troops presently in Iraq, 134,000, allows commanders on the ground little room to maneuver.

The disappointing results of Operation Together Forward in Baghdad showed that while U.S. forces can concentrate for a limited amount of time in a small number of targeted sectors, they lack the numbers to stabilize even those areas on a lasting basis. The 21,500 additional soldiers proposed by the Bush administration to fill the “five brigade” gap in Baghdad fall far short of the total needed to tip the long-term balance toward peace within Baghdad, let alone the country as a whole. Assuming it were possible to restore order in Iraq, the task, according to the army’s new counterinsurgency manual drafted under then Lieutenant General David H. Petraeus’s supervision, would require at least double the number of troops the United States will have on the ground once the latest surge has been implemented. A commitment this big would force the United States to reduce its forward deployed forces in other areas where they safeguard American interests..."


Irak, Etats-Unis - Escaping the Trap: Why the United States Must Leave Iraq
Cato Institute February 14, 2007

"The U.S. military occupation of Iraq has now lasted longer than U.S. involvement in World War II. Yet there is no end in sight to the mission.

Staying in Iraq is a fatally flawed policy that has already cost more than 3,000 American lives and consumed more than $350 billion. The security situation in that country grows increasingly chaotic and bloody as evidence mounts that Iraq has descended into a sectarian civil war between Sunnis and Shiites. Approximately 120 Iraqis per day are perishing in political violence. That bloodshed is occurring in a country of barely 26 million people. A comparable rate of carnage in the United States would produce more than 1,400 fatalities per day.

That reality is a far cry from the optimistic pronouncements the administration and its supporters made when the war began. We were supposed to be able to draw down the number of our troops to no more than 60,000 before the end of 2003, and Iraqi oil revenues were to pay for the reconstruction of the country.

Even worse, Iraq has become both a training ground and a recruiting poster for Islamic extremists. U.S. occupation of Iraq has become yet another grievance throughout the Muslim world and has exacerbated our already worrisome problem with radical Islamic terrorism..."


Territoires palestiniens - The Mecca Accord (Part 1): The Victory of Unity over Progress
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2/12/2007

"The Fatah-Hamas agreement mediated by the Saudis last week in Mecca revives a long tradition in Palestinian politics of prioritizing internal unity over progress toward strategic objectives. With Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas compromising on almost every critical issue to reach accord with the leadership of Hamas, the agreement blurs the distinction between moderate and extremist in the Palestinian camp and poses a direct challenge to advocates of the thesis that the contest between those two poles is the defining feature of the current Middle East landscape..."


Lire également, Read also :

The Mecca Accord (Part II): Implications for Arabs, Israel, and U.S. Policy
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2/12/2007


Yemen - Evaluating Political Reform in Yemen
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace February 2007

"Yemeni democratic reform was lauded following the 2006 presidential election when a credible opposition candidate captured 22 percent of the vote.  In a region dominated by single-party authoritarian regimes, some experts concluded that the opposition’s success made this the most significant election in the Middle East. But did the election truly indicate a shift towards substantial political reform, or was the regime simply allowing minor electoral freedoms while seeking to maintain the status quo?  What can outsiders do to help facilitate democratic reforms in Yemen? ..."


Etats-Unis - The FY2008 National Security Program
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies February 14, 2007

"The President’s FY2008 budget request is one of the most complex in recent years, marking a major transition from a request that largely ignored wartime costs, and focused solely on baseline expenditures, to one with a far more detailed breakout of projected expenditures.

This briefing is not a critique or an attempt at original analysis. It rather brings together the summary data provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, OMB, and the White House to summarize the overall trends in the President’s request.

It also contains summary data on the overall war on terror request affecting non-defense departments and agencies, on all requested homeland defense expenditures, and on related State Department aid activities..."


Lire également, Read also :

The Changing Challenges of U.S. Defense Spending
Anthony H. Cordesman, Center for Strategic & International Studies February 12, 2007


Terrorisme - Nine Essential Points for Talking About the War on Terrorism
Heritage Foundation, 1/31/2007

"Americans hear conflicting messages about how to think and talk about terrorism. As a result, the message of freedom and justice is often muted or muddled. Americans can do better..."


Terrorisme, Inde - Understanding Indian Insurgencies: Implications for Counterinsurgency Operations in the Third World
Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College February 20/02/2007

"The term insurgency has been used broadly to include all violent struggles against the state by any group or section of the population of an area trying to establish its independent political control over that area and its population. India has been containing Islamic terrorism for years, with the second largest Muslim population in the world, about 12 percent of India’s total population..."


Asie - Regionalism in South Asian Diplomacy
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute 2007-02-14

"Since 2003 SIPRI has published in its Yearbook a series of guest-authored chapters on the latest developments in regional security cooperation—or the lack of it—in various parts of the world. The SIPRI Yearbook 2006 contained a chapter by the Institute's Director, Alyson Bailes, and Dr Andrew Cottey of the University of Cork that tried to set out a new, objective analytical approach for assessing both the success and the legitimacy of different regional security ventures. How well have they performed in avoiding local conflicts, promoting constructive military cooperation, improving governance in the security sector and more widely, and tackling ‘new threats’ like terrorism and the functional or economic aspects of security? Do they represent a fair balance of their members’ interests, without necessarily damaging those of outsiders; do they adapt flexibly to changing security conditions; and do they offer good returns on the resources that are invested in them?

SIPRI Policy Paper No. 15 applies these questions to one of the world’s best-known problem areas. Regional cooperation directly targeted at security issues has been a non-starter for most of South Asia’s post-World War II history because of the adversarial relationship between India and Pakistan, but also because of a more general asymmetry between India and its smaller neighbours, and other persistent security problems (like the Sri Lankan internal conflict) that the region itself seems unable to master..."


Défense - The DOD Dictionary of Military Terms


Blanchiment, Criminalité économique - Groupe d'Action Financière (GAFI) et Comité d'experts sur l'évaluation des mesures de lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux (MONEYVAL)

"Première réunion plénière conjointe
Strasbourg, 21-23 février 2007

Afin de renforcer la coopération internationale en matière de lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux et le financement du terrorisme, le Groupe d' Action Financière (GAFI, organisme intergouvernemental) et le Comité d'experts du Conseil de l'Europe sur l'évaluation des mesures de lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux (Moneyval) tiennent une première réunion plénière conjointe, du 21 au 23 février.

La Plénière examinera l'évaluation mutuelle par le GAFI de la législation anti-blanchiment et sa mise en œuvre en Turquie, le rapport mutuel d'évaluation sur la Géorgie et le rapport de progrès de Chypre dans le cadre du troisième cycle d'évaluation de MONEYVAL.

Les participants débattront également de l'abus de systèmes de TVA pour blanchir des capitaux et du blanchiment d'argent en Amérique du Sud..."


Voir, See :

Moneyval : Rapports et résumés par pays


Propriété intellectuelle - The Copyright Industries in the International Intellectual Property Alliance Submit to USTR their 2007 Report on Piracy in 60 Countries/Territories
International Intellectual Property Alliance (IIPA) 12/02/07

"The International Intellectual Property Alliance (IIPA) submitted its recommendations to U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab today in the annual “Special 301” review of copyright piracy and market access problems around the world. IIPA’s submission discusses copyright protection, enforcement, and market access problems in 60 countries/territories, of which it recommends that 45 be placed on an appropriate USTR list. IIPA also discusses piracy and market access problems in an additional 15 countries but is not recommending that these countries be placed on any formal list. The IIPA submission also describes eight challenges and initiatives that define the industries’ collective agenda for 2007..."