Semaine du 04 au 10/02/2007


Irak, Etats-Unis - The New Bush Strategy in Iraq: What are the Chances of "Victory"?
Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS February 05, 2007

"President Bush has presented a new strategy for the war in Iraq that may be able to defeat the insurgency and reverse Iraq’s drift towards large-scale civil war. His speech has, however, raised many questions as to both the risks it will create over the coming months and the real-world ability to actually implement his plans.

Much of the criticism of the new Bush approach has been unfair. The new strategy is considerably more sophisticated and comprehensive than the details the President could fit into his 20-minute address – which had been cut back from a longer 40-minute version. It combines political, military, and economic action in ways that do offer a significant hope of success.

The following analysis examines the strengths and weaknesses of the proposals in the President’s speech in detail, but also adds important further details and clarifications by Secretary of State Rice, Secretary of Defense Gates, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Peter Pace. A reading of these additional details is far more reassuring than the bare bones of the President’s speech, but it is clear that the new strategy and plan still involve several critical risks, the most important of which are political and military..."


Etats-Unis, Chine, Afrique - China’s Expanding Role in Africa: Implications for the United States
Bates Gill, Chin-Hao Huang, and J. Stephen Morrison, Center for Strategic & International Studies February 05, 2007

"China, in its quest for a closer strategic partnership with Africa, has increasingly dynamic economic, political, and diplomatic activities on the continent. As demonstrated in the third Forum on China and Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in November 2006, the high-profile summit marked a historic moment in China- Africa relations. China's highest leadership actively espoused the summit's ambitious vision, which was enthusiastically embraced by a broad range of African leaders. Forty-eight African countries were present, including 43 heads of state. The Chinese push forward in Africa raises the promise of achieving future gains that benefit Africa in significant, constructive ways, raising hopes that China will seriously turn its attention to long-neglected areas such as infrastructure development and that its strategic approach will raise Africa’s status globally, intensify political and market competition, create promising new choices in external partnerships, strengthen African capacities to combat malaria and HIV/AIDS, and propel the continent’s economic growth, enabling African countries to better integrate with the global economy..."


Kosovo - Executive Summary: Kosovo Report
UN Office of the Special Envoy for Kosovo (UNOSEK)

"Mr. Martti Ahtisaari, the Special Envoy of the Seceretary-General to lead the future status process for Kosovo, has released the Executive Summary of the ‘Comprehensive Proposal for the Kosovo Status Settlement’. Find out more from the UN Office of the Special Envoy for Kosovo (UNOSEK) Web site..."


Corruption, Criminalité économique - Criminals and Scoundrels: The 25 Most Corrupt Bush Administration Officials
Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) February 7, 2007

"Today, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) released a new report on the most corrupt officials in the Bush administration entitled "Criminals and Scoundrels: The 25 Most Corrupt Bush Administration Officials." For the first time, the report chronicles the criminal activities and misconduct of high level officials in the current administration. Using public and court records, CREW developed a comprehensive list of government officials who have abused the public trust.

CREW found and documented more than more than 160 cases of misconduct over the last six years and then narrowed the list based on type of offense, the official's level of responsibility and the impact on the public trust. The majority of the officials in the report have been convicted of crimes, are currently under criminal investigation, or are being investigated by the inspector generals of their respective agencies. CREW's website, www.citizensforethics.org, provides summaries of each case as well as accompanying exhibits..."


The Report


Corruption, Criminalité économique - Network for Integrity in Reconstruction (NIR)

"Since May 2005, Tiri has worked with NGO partners in eight post-war countries to produce a body of research that lays the groundwork for a systematic civil society effort to improve transparency and accountability in aid delivery and policy making in post-war reconstruction. A policy paper based on this research will be published in the first half of 2007. The country studies were published in January 2007.

The rationale for focusing on post-war reconstruction settings is twofold: First, the opportunity cost of systemic corruption is enormous for the counties concerned and can, among other effects, make a recurrence of conflict more likely, as well as reducing the sustainability and effectiveness of the aid delivery. Second, post-war settings are prone to specific corruption opportunities and call for specific counter-measures and this problem has been largely neglected by aid donor and implementing agencies.

The publication of the research findings in January marked the formal launch of the Network for Integrity in Reconstruction (NIR), an NGO network committed to effective reform in this field. NIR draws on experiences from NGOs in post-war countries as well as leading international NGOs. NIR is facilitated by Tiri. Tiri’s founders have been engaged in efforts to improve integrity standards in post-war reconstruction since 2001 and more generally in civil society anti-corruption activities since the early 1990s..."


Voir, See :

Reconstruction National Integrity System Surveys:

RNISS Afghanistan
RNISS Bosnia Herzegovina
RNISS Kosovo
RNISS Mozambique
RNISS Palestine
RNISS Sierra Leone


Terrorisme - New Web Site from the U.S. Department of Justice: Joint Terrorism Task Force

"Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) are small cells of highly trained, locally based, passionately committed investigators, analysts, linguists, SWAT experts, and other specialists from dozens of U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies. It is a multi-agency effort led by the Justice Department and FBI designed to combine the resources of federal, state, and local law enforcement..."


Terrorisme - The New Totalitarians: Social Identities and Radical islamist Political Grand Strategy
Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College February 09, 2007

"The author argues that the social identity theory behind the “clash of civilizations” thesis is useful for analyzing the tasks before us in the “Long War” on Terrorism. The “clash of civilizations” is not actually occurring, he argues, but is rather the end goal of radical Islamist political grand strategy. Radical Islamist terrorists, like the Fascists and Communists before them, cannot allow alternative value systems to exist in areas they control. Their goal is to spread such totalitarian beliefs to the entire Muslim world in order to create a violent “clash” with non-Muslim societies, and, in some versions, radical Islam is expected to spread to the entire world. The author argues that the first thing to understand about the enemy is that there is nothing to negotiate with them because of their radical totalitarian nature. He warns that the first imperative of any strategy in the “Long War” on Terror must be to prevent such a totalitarian ummah from being created in order to prevent a “clash of civilizations.” This can best be accomplished by supporting the majority of mainstream Muslims, rewarding moves towards moderation, and avoiding unnecessary irritants to Muslim sensibilities..."


Terrorisme - Breaching the Fortress Wall: Understanding Terrorist Efforts to Overcome Defensive Technologies
RAND Corporation 2007

"The level of threat posed by a terrorist group is determined in large part by its ability to build its organizational capabilities and bring those capabilities to bear in violent action. As part of homeland security efforts, technology systems play a key role within a larger, integrated strategy to target groups’ efforts and protect the public from the threat of terrorist violence. Terrorist organizations are acutely aware of government efforts to deploy these systems and actively seek ways to evade or counteract them. This study draws on relevant data from the history of a variety of terrorist conflicts to understand terrorists’ counter-technology efforts. Depending on the adaptive capabilities of the adversary, a defensive model built of a variety of security measures that can be adjusted and redeployed as their vulnerable points are discovered provides a superior approach to addressing this portion of terrorist behavior. Fully exploring adversaries’ counter-technology behaviors can expose vulnerabilities in U.S. defenses and help the nation make the best choices to protect it from the threat of terrorism..."


Terrorisme - Reducing Terrorism Risk at Shopping Centers: An Analysis of Potential Security Options
RAND Corporation 2007

"Terrorist threat at shopping centers is a prominent concern, with over 60 terrorist attacks against shopping centers in 21 countries since 1998. Shopping center operators are beginning to explore and implement increased security efforts specifically designed to combat terrorism. This report offers qualitative and quantitative modeling approaches to help shopping center operators evaluate candidate security options in terms of their effectiveness at reducing terrorism risk, reaching the following conclusions. First, a strategy to reduce terrorism risk will be similar for most shopping centers. Second, because terrorism security at shopping centers is based primarily on deterrence, disaster preparedness plans and exercises do little to reduce terrorism risk. Third, centers that implement terrorism security options early may experience both challenges (shoppers may be annoyed enough to go elsewhere) and advantages (shoppers may prefer shopping in centers they feel are safer). Fourth, a tiered implementation may be the best strategy — implementing security options most appropriate for now and developing plans for the future. Finally, this analysis provides useful guidance about prioritizing security options to reduce terrorism risk, but it does not address the risk of terrorism overall or when to begin implementing terrorism security options..."


Climat - The impact of sea level rise on developing countries : a comparative analysis
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers 2007/02/09

"Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat. The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1m-3m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 5m SLR. In this paper, the authors have assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP) with the inundation zones projected for 1-5m SLR. The results reveal that hundreds of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century, and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these countries (such as Vietnam, A. R. of Egypt, and The Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others, including some of the largest (such as China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are very large. At the other extreme, many developing countries experience limited impacts. Among regions, East Asia and the Middle East and North Africa exhibit the greatest relative impacts. To date, there is little evidence that the international community has seriously considered the implications of SLR for population location and infrastructure planning in developing countries. The authors hope that the information provided in this paper will encourage immediate planning for adaptation..."


Médias - Citizen Media: Fad or the Future of News? The rise and prospects of hyperlocal journalism
Knight Citizen News Network 02/07

"Our key takeaways:

• Citizen media is emerging as a form of bridge media, linking traditional media with forms of civic participation.
• No one size fits all; there are many models.
• Instead of being comprehensive sources of news, sites are forming as fusions of news and schmooze.
• Most citizen sites don’t use traditional metrics - unique visitors, page views or revenues - to measure their success.
• Success is often defined as impact on their community.
• Half of our respondents said their sites don’t need to make money to continue.
• Yet there are new kinds of media companies starting to emerge.
• There is a high degree of optimism that citizen news sites are here to stay.
• Finding ways to attract more contributors and some operating support are major challenges..."