Prévisions, Prospective - Foresight 2020: economic, industry and corporate trends
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 2006

"Executive Summary :

A lot can happen in 15 years. At the start of the 1990s, China was largely a planned economy, and the Soviet Union still existed. Few people had heard of the Internet and e-mail seemed closer to science fiction than reality. The next 15 years will bring further massive changes to the shape of the world economy, to the landscape of major industries and to the workings of the company. The major findings of the Foresight 2020 survey are summarised overleaf, but the principal trends identified in this report include the following:

1 - Globalisation. It’s too early to talk of Asia’s century, but there will be a redistribution of economic power. Emerging markets, and China and India in particular, will take a greater slice of the world economy. Non-OECD markets will account for a higher share of revenue growth between now and 2020 than OECD economies. Labour-intensive production processes will continue to shift to lower-cost economies, which will still enjoy a massive wage advantage over developed markets. The pace of globalisation will be arguably the critical determinant of the rate of world economic growth.

2 - Demographics. Population shifts will have a significant impact on economies, companies and customers. The favourable demographic profile of the US will help to spur growth; ageing populations in Europe will inhibit it. Industries will target more products and services at ageing populations, from investment advice to low-cost, functional cars. Workforces in more mature markets will become older and more female.

3 - Atomisation. Globalisation and networking technologies will enable firms to use the world as their supply base for talent and materials. Processes, firms, customers and supply chains will fragment as companies expand overseas, as work flows to where it is best done and as information digitises. As a result, effective collaboration will become more important. The boundaries between different functions, organisations and even industries will blur. Data formats and technologies will standardise.

4 - Personalisation. Price and quality will matter as much as ever, but customers in developed and developing markets will place more emphasis on personalisation. Products and services will be customisable, leading firms to design products in a modular fashion and, in the case of manufacturers, assemble them in response to specific customer orders. Customers and suppliers will be treated in different ways, depending on their personal preferences and their importance to the business.

5 - Knowledge management. Running an efficient organisation is no easy task but it is unlikely on its own to offer lasting competitive advantage. Products are too easily commoditised; automation of simple processes is increasingly widespread. Instead, the focus of management attention will be on the areas of the business, from innovation to customer service, where personal chemistry or creative insight matter more than rules and processes. Improving the productivity of knowledge workers through technology, training and organisational change will be the major boardroom challenge of the next 15 years.


Energie, Prospective - The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030
ExxonMobil 2006


Russie - Poutine va-t-il renoncer à l'économie de marché ?
Anders Aslund, Telos, Agence intellectuelle 08/12/06

"L'accord signé entre Poutine et Bush sur l'accession de la Russie à l'OMC ne doit pas faire illusion, car à en juger par les dernières interventions du président russe, on peut craindre que l'économie russe ne retrouve les mauvaises habitudes des années Brejnev..."


Globalisation, Libre échange - It's the trade stupid… !
Zaki Laïdi, Telos, Agence intellectuelle 27/11/06

"Tout le monde connaît la fameuse phrase de Clinton, "It’s the economy stupid", par laquelle il voulait dire que c’était l’économie qui était au cœur des préoccupations de ses concitoyens. L’échec des républicains aux élections de mi-mandat serait-il lié à la crainte de voir l’emploi reculer ? Ce qui se passe aux Etats-Unis peut-il se passer en France ?..."


Etats-Unis, Irak - Iraq Study Group report
Iraq Study Group 06/12/06

"At the urging of Congress, the United States Institute of Peace is facilitating the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, led by co-chairs James A. Baker, III, former secretary of state and honorary chairman of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, and Lee H. Hamilton, former congressman and director of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The Iraq Study Group will conduct a forward-looking, independent assessment of the current and prospective situation on the ground in Iraq, its impact on the surrounding region, and consequences for U.S. interests..."


Lire également, Read also :

Talabani lashes out at 'dangerous' Baker report on US role in Iraq
Guardian 11/12/06

Iran Is Key to Course Change on Iraq
Trita Parsi, IPS 09/12/06

Baker Group Urges Major Policy Overhaul
Jim Lobe, IPS 06/12/06

Engaging Iran on Iraq: At What Price and to What End?
Patrick Clawson, Washington Institute for Near East Policy 05/12/06

Neo-Cons Move to Preempt Baker Report
Jim Lobe, IPS 05/12/06

A Civil War -- and Worse
Boston Globe 04/12/06


Iran, Nucléaire - A Limited Time Offer to Iran
George Perkovich and Pierre Goldschmidt.  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 02/12/06

"In October, Iran began operating a second group of 164 uranium enrichment centrifuges, violating a legally binding demand by the United Nations Security Council that Iran suspend such activities until the international community is confident that the country’s nuclear program “is for exclusively peaceful purposes.” Iran’s response was that a suspension would abrogate its rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty — even though under international law, it has temporarily surrendered these rights by violating the obligations that condition them..."


Etats-Unis, Iran, Nucléaire - Iran-U.S. Competition in Middle East Holds Seeds of Tragedy
George Perkovich.  Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 28/11/06

"George Perkovich, a leading expert on Iran and on nuclear issues, says the debate over Iran’s nuclear program has now been widened, with Iran feeling emboldened to compete with the United States for dominance in the Middle East as a whole. He warns this competition has the potential for “tragedy” if the United States feels it must use military power against Iran..."


Russie, Iran - Russian Weapons Sales to Iran: Why They are Unlikely to Stop
Alla Kassianova.  Center for Strategic and International Studies 08/12/06

"From 1995 to 2005, more than 70 percent of Iran’s arms imports came from Russia, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a well-respected observer of global military transfers. Although Iran imported far fewer arms from Russia than either China or India during this time, it was still Russia’s third largest buyer. Russia’s weapons sales to Iran, as well as its assistance in developing Iran’s nuclear energy and space programs, are often linked to Moscow’s opposition to harsh measures levied in response to Iran’s nuclear transgressions..."


Etats-Unis, Iran, Irak - Iran, Iraq, and the United States: The New Triangle's Impact on Sectarianism and the Nuclear Threat
Sherifa D. Zuhur, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College 11/06

"What is the best possible response to growing Iranian influence in Iraq? How does this issue relate to the crisis over Iran’s efforts to obtain nuclear capabilities? Can the United States leverage one issue against the other, offering Iran incentives to shift down its nuclear program and, at the same time, withhold judgment on that country’s influence in Iraq? Or are these concerns best dealt with separately from the American policy perspective? Beyond American foreign policy and policy analysis, European, Arab, Israeli, Russian, and Chinese interests are factors in the new equation..."


Asie centrale - Central Asia Between Competition and Cooperation
Yu Bin.  Foreign Policy in Focus 04/12/06

"Great power competition in Central Asia ebbs and flows in a timeless and tireless fashion. Unlike in Europe and East Asia during the Cold War and after, the fault line for the current jockeying for position in Central Asia between Washington and Beijing is not easily discernible. Instead, fluidity, uncertainty, and even outright reversal of fortunes among the major players have been the norm..."


Etats-Unis, Energie, Sécurité - National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency
Council on Foreign Relations, Independent Task Force Report #58 - 2006

"The Council on Foreign Relations established an Independent Task Force to examine the consequences of dependence on imported energy for U.S. foreign policy. Since the United States both consumes and imports more oil than any other country, the Task Force has concentrated its deliberations on matters of petroleum. In so doing, it reaches a sobering but inescapable judgment: the lack of sustained attention to energy issues is undercutting U.S. foreign policy and national security..."


Géostratégie, Sécurité asiatique - The Importance of the Spratly Islands
Dr. Federico Bordonaro, PINR 28/11/06

"The Spratly Islands, located at the southern end of the South China Sea, remain crucial to the region's geostrategic setting. In late October and early November this year, Beijing and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (A.S.E.A.N.) tried to re-launch friendly talks related to the territorial disputes of the islands. They discussed broad Southeast Asian security issues and opened the way for possibly fruitful, structured diplomatic dialogue. The context, however, remains extremely complicated..."


Terrorisme, Sécurité - 11 septembre 2006 : le point sur cinq ans de lutte contre Al Qaïda et le terrorisme transnational
par Jean-François Daguzan, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique 06/11/06


Terrorisme, Sécurité - Container Security Initiative: 2006-2011 Strategic Plan
U.S. Customs and Border Protection 08/06

"The CBP CSI Strategic Plan relies on a multi-layered approach consisting of three goals and associated objectives and strategies. This section summarizes the essential features of the CSI plan designed to address elements of the terrorist threat involving the global maritime trade community..."


Etats-Unis, Chine - New Report: Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning
Federation of American Scientists 30/11/06

"An incipient nuclear arms race is emerging between China and the United States, according to a new report published today by the Federation of American Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council..."