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27/02/05 –
Dollar -
L'Australie s'inquiète d'un possible crash du Dollar - Australia
fear a sharp
fall in the US dollar...
US
deficits risk crash: Treasury
Australian 25/02/05
"PETER Costello's closest adviser
fears the US is heading for a devastating financial crash that
could ravage Australia's economic growth.
As the Reserve Bank considers raising
interest rates at its board meeting next Tuesday, Treasury
Secretary Ken Henry likened the flood of money pouring into
the US to support its budget and current account deficits to
the stockmarket's dotcom bubble of the late 1990s.
Were it suddenly to stop, there would be shockwaves felt
throughout the world's economies.
The financial crash feared by Dr Henry would involve a sharp
fall in the US dollar and a bond market sell-off, which would
push up US and world interest rates.
This would hit US economic growth and, as a result, cut
Chinese exports of manufactured products to the American
market. In turn, this would threaten the boom in Australian
mineral exports to China..."
Australia's
Henry warns of U.S. bond "exuberance"
Reuters 24/02/05
"The cheap funding of the U.S. current account deficit is
worryingly reminiscent of the "irrational
exuberance" in U.S. stock markets in the 1990s,
Australia's top treasury official said on Thursday.
At a conference in Sydney, Treasury Secretary Ken Henry also
questioned whether the large U.S. deficit could continue to
attract funding from foreign central banks.
"Some countries' monetary authorities are willing buyers
of U.S. liabilities, especially U.S. Treasuries, even though
they must surely be expecting negative returns," Henry
said in his speech on "Macroeconomic policy and
structural change in East Asia."
"But what if they change their mind because the
opportunity and holding costs simply become too high? And what
happens when they consider their economies strong enough to
bear currency appreciation?"..."
Foreign
Investment's Flip Side
WaPo 25/02/05
"...The interrupted slumber of Nomura's New York mortgage traders is
one small facet of the rapidly rising flow of foreign money into U.S.
financial markets. This torrent of capital from overseas has become
indispensable fuel for the U.S. economic engine, helping to keep interest
rates low."
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But the
influx of capital has an ominous flip side -- the ballooning U.S. trade
deficit, which soared 24 percent in 2004, to $617.7 billion. The dollars
spent by Americans on Japanese cars, Chinese televisions and other
imported goods end up in the hands of foreigners, who plow them into U.S.
Treasury bonds and other securities like the ones sold by Leonard and his
fellow traders.
Therein lies a serious worry for many economists: As the deficit mounts,
so does America's overall indebtedness to foreigners, which now totals
about $3 trillion. That would be less troubling if the money streaming in
from overseas were helping to finance a boom in productive assets such as
factories and machinery..."
Fear
and Loathing Crack Greenspan Bond Conundrum
Bloomberg 25/02/05
"Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's description of low bond
yields as a "conundrum'' earlier this month echoed his December 1996
warning about "irrational exuberance'' in the stock market..."
Lire également, Read also :
If
China Shuns Dollar, Look Out U.S. Bonds: William Pesek Jr.
Bloomberg 28/01/05
"...Hence all the fuss over comments by Chinese economist Fan Gang.
Fan isn't a government official; he's director of the state- owned
National Economic Research Institute in Beijing. The connection seemed
close enough for traders who found great relevance in Fan's comment that
China has lost faith in the dollar, to which its currency is pegged.
"The U.S. dollar is no longer, in our opinion is no longer, (seen) as
a stable currency and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting
troubles all the time,'' Fan said, speaking in English, at the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "So the real issue is how to
change the regime from a U.S. dollar pegging to a more manageable
reference, say euros, yen, dollars -- those kind of more diversified
systems.''
Paul Donovan, London-based senior global economist at UBS AG, seemed to
speak for many traders and investors when he said: "This in fact is a
scenario we consider to be highly likely.'' Certainly more likely than,
say, China letting the yuan trade freely..."
Asia/Pacific:
Dollar Is The Key
Morgan Stanley 04/01/05
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